英特爾股份有限公司（Intel Corporation）於1968年於美國加州聖塔克拉拉成立，由Robert Noyce與Gordon Moore共同創辦，這兩位皆是半導體產業的傳奇人物。成立之初，公司便已創新和技術領先為目標，致力於開發先進的半導體產品，僅僅兩年後英特爾便取得重大突破，發明動態隨機存取記憶體（DRAM），並推出世界上第一款DRAM晶片。
然而，隨著時間的推移，DRAM市場在80年代被日本企業取代，當時執行長Andy Grove尋求改革，轉向進攻微處理器的研發和生產，這一轉變被證明是極具遠見的決策，後在90年代起開啟了長達20年的個人電腦與伺服器市場的龍頭地位，市場佔有率分別達到80%與90%，且長期佔據半導體龍頭地位。
而近年，英特爾公司在自家晶圓製造技術的停滯不前，於關鍵節點落後於台灣積體電路製造公司（TSMC），其導致在先進製程的競賽中處於劣勢。此外也錯失移動端的處理晶片發展機遇，以及在許多投資標的上的營收貢獻不如預期。更重要的是，公司未能搭上AI的浪潮，在AI晶片的市場競爭中落和於對手。最後，前執行長Pat Gelsinger低估了晶圓建廠的成本壓力，致其在積極的產能擴張下面臨嚴峻的財務困難，種種因素下導致公司於2023年第一季為近十年來首次虧損。
此次研究旨在深入分析英特爾近二十年來在幾項重要策略上的失誤，並探討其近期提出的IDM 2.0 轉型策略是否能為公司帶來轉機，甚至重回半導體龍頭寶座。主要探討的議題包括：IDM 2.0 轉型架構、高階晶圓製程與代工的競賽、未來推出明星產品的可能性，以及未來五年的財務分析與預測。
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本研究係本學生基於學術研究之目的使用，任何關於股價的研究行為，皆不具任何股票投資與買賣上的建議，讀者應審慎評估且自行判斷風險。
關鍵字：IDM、無晶圓廠模式、算力、財務預測、生成式人工智慧

Intel Corporation was founded in 1968 in Santa Clara, California, by Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, both of whom are legends in the semiconductor industry. At the beginning of its establishment, the company has been committed to the development of advanced semiconductor products with the goal of innovation and technological leadership. Just two years later, Intel made a major breakthrough, invented Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), and launched the world's first DRAM chip.
However, as time went by, the DRAM market was replaced by Japanese companies in the 1980s. At that time, CEO Andy Grove sought reform and turned to the research and development and production of microprocessors. This change proved to be a very far-sighted decision. Later, in the 1990s, it ushered in a 20-year leading position in the personal computer and server markets, with market shares reaching 80% and 90% respectively, and has long occupied the leading position in the semiconductor industry.
In recent years, Intel owned wafer manufacturing technology has stagnated and it has fallen behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) at key nodes, putting it at a disadvantage in the competition for advanced processes. In addition, the company missed the opportunity to develop mobile processing chips, and the revenue contribution from many investment targets was lower than expected. More importantly, the company failed to catch up with the AI wave and fell behind its competitors in the AI chip market competition. Finally, former CEO Pat Gelsinger underestimated the cost pressure of building wafer fabs, causing the company to face severe financial difficulties under active capacity expansion. Due to various factors, the company suffered its first loss in nearly a decade in the first quarter of 2023.
This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis of Intel’s mistakes in several important strategies over the past two decades, and to explore whether its recently proposed IDM 2.0 transformation strategy can bring a turnaround for the company or even return it to its position as the leader in the semiconductor industry. The main topics discussed include IDM 2.0 transformation architecture, competition in high-end wafer process and foundry, the possibility of launching star products in the future, and financial analysis and forecasts for the next five years.
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This research is used by this student for academic research purposes. Any research activities on stock prices do not constitute any advice on stock investment or trading. Readers should carefully evaluate and judge the risks on their own.
Keywords: IDM, Fabless Model, Computing Power, Financial Forecast, Generative Artificial Intelligence