研究生: |
李承曄 Li, Cheng-Yeh |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
建立台灣樂活世代退休理財模型 Building a retirement finance model for Taiwanese Lohas generation |
指導教授: |
李傳楷
LEE, CHUAN-KAI |
口試委員: |
陳寶蓮
CHEN, PAO-LIEN 胡美智 HU,MEI-CHIH 吳清炎 Wu, Ching-Yan |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 經營管理碩士在職專班(MBA) Business Administration |
論文出版年: | 2025 |
畢業學年度: | 113 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 61 |
中文關鍵詞: | 退休金 、存股 、資產配置 、定期定額 、樂活理財 |
外文關鍵詞: | long-term investment, compound interest effect, diversified investment, dollar-cost averaging, LOHAS financial planning |
相關次數: | 點閱:38 下載:8 |
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隨著台灣進入高齡化社會,傳統依賴政府退休金與單一收入來源的退休模式已無法滿足現代中產階級對財務穩健與生活品質的雙重需求。退休金替代率下滑、通膨與長壽風險增加,使中產家庭在不動產流動性低、金融市場波動大的環境下,亟需更完整且具彈性的退休規劃。本研究針對月收入10至15萬元的台灣中產族群,建構一套具在地化、可執行性與生活品質量化功能的「樂活退休理財模型」,協助實現財務自由與高品質退休生活。
本研究整合生命週期財務理論、效率前緣理論、現代資產配置理論,並採用蒙地卡羅模擬技術,設計20年與25年兩種退休準備情境,以達成每月60,000元被動收入為目標。模擬參數假設年報酬率6%、通膨率3%-4%,並納入勞保年金作為穩定現金流來源。結果顯示,在情境1(勞保月領14,198元)與情境2(17,748元)下,所需退休資產分別為1,374萬與1,267萬元,對應之月投資金額為30,600元與19,000元,即可達成財務目標。即使在保守假設(報酬4%、通膨4%)下,模型仍可維持40%以上的成功率。
本模型同時整合多元收入來源,包括高股息ETF、長天期債券與房租收入,並將健康支出(5,000-10,000元/月)與旅遊預算(5-15萬元/年)納入財務計算,實現生活品質與財務目標的整合。搭配效率前緣護欄提領策略,能根據市場變動彈性調整提領比例。
本研究回應Ganguly與Prakash所提出的價值導向退休理財概念,提供一套在地化、可量化、具實務操作性的退休財務規劃架構,對個人投資者與政府退休政策制定皆具重要參考價值。
As Taiwan enters an aging society, the traditional retirement model that relies solely on government pensions and single income sources is no longer sufficient to meet the dual needs of financial stability and quality of life for the modern middle class. The decline in pension replacement rates, coupled with inflation and longevity risks, has placed increasing pressure on middle-income households—especially in an environment of low real estate liquidity and high financial market volatility—highlighting the urgent need for a more comprehensive and flexible retirement planning strategy. This study targets Taiwanese middle-income families earning NT$100,000 to NT$150,000 per month and develops a “LOHAS Retirement Financial Planning Model” that is localized, actionable, and integrates quantifiable lifestyle quality indicators to support financial freedom and high-quality retirement living.
This research integrates Life Cycle Finance Theory, Efficient Frontier Theory, and Modern Portfolio Theory, and applies Monte Carlo simulation to design two retirement preparation scenarios—20 years and 25 years—aiming to achieve a monthly passive income of NT$60,000 after retirement. Simulation parameters assume a 6% annual return and a 3%-4% inflation rate, with labor insurance pensions included as a source of stable cash flow. Results indicate that under Scenario 1 (monthly labor pension of NT$14,198) and Scenario 2 (NT$17,748), the required retirement assets are NT$13.74 million and NT$12.67 million, respectively. The corresponding monthly investment amounts are NT$30,600 and NT$19,000, enabling the achievement of financial goals. Even under conservative assumptions (4% return, 4% inflation), the model maintains a success rate of over 40%.
The model also integrates multiple income sources, including high-dividend ETFs, long-term bonds, and rental income, and quantifies health-related expenses (NT$5,000–10,000 per month) and travel budgets (NT$50,000–150,000 per year) into financial planning, thereby aligning financial goals with quality-of-life aspirations. In addition, the model applies an efficient frontier “guardrail” withdrawal strategy that allows dynamic adjustment of withdrawal rates based on market performance.
This study responds to the value-driven retirement planning framework proposed by Ganguly and Prakash by offering a localized, quantifiable, and practically applicable retirement financial model. It provides important insights for both individual investors and policymakers, offering strategic guidance for personal retirement preparation, the promotion of LOHAS retirement education, ESG investing, and the optimization of public pension systems.