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研究生: 滸安
Juan Manuel Velasquez Estrada
論文名稱: Generating and Evaluating Predictions with PLS Path Modeling
PLS 路徑模型之產生與預測評估
指導教授: 雷松亞
Soumya Ray
徐茉莉
Galit Shmueli
口試委員: 馮炳萱
Fung, Ping-hsuan
林福仁
Lin, Fu-ren
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 國際專業管理碩士班
International Master of Business Administration(IMBA)
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 38
中文關鍵詞: PLS-PMPredictionEvaluationAlgorithmExplanatoryModels
外文關鍵詞: PLS-PM, Prediction, Evaluation, Algorithm, Explanatory, Models
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  • Partial Least of Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) has become a highly utilized statistical tool for business research in recent years. Its flexibility, with no distribution assumptions and its capacity of working with small sample size are often cited as the major characteristics that draw the attention of researchers. Its predictive nature is often cited as one of its more distinctive characteristics, despite the fact that most researchers utilize it only for explanatory purposes. The lack of a formalized algorithm for prediction using PLS-PM models has contributed to the slow development of the technique as a predictive method. In this dissertation we present a suggested algorithm to generate predictions using PLS-PM models, we provide a software implementation as well as a benchmark comparison of its predictive validity against one of the most traditional predictive tools, linear regression. It is then the aim of this dissertation to encourage further research on the subject of PLS-PM as a predictive tool combined with its already known explanatory capabilities, filling the gap in the explanatory-predictive gamut with a reliable method to perform theory informed predictions.


    Partial Least of Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) has become a highly utilized statistical tool for business research in recent years. Its flexibility, with no distribution assumptions and its capacity of working with small sample size are often cited as the major characteristics that draw the attention of researchers. Its predictive nature is often cited as one of its more distinctive characteristics, despite the fact that most researchers utilize it only for explanatory purposes. The lack of a formalized algorithm for prediction using PLS-PM models has contributed to the slow development of the technique as a predictive method. In this dissertation we present a suggested algorithm to generate predictions using PLS-PM models, we provide a software implementation as well as a benchmark comparison of its predictive validity against one of the most traditional predictive tools, linear regression. It is then the aim of this dissertation to encourage further research on the subject of PLS-PM as a predictive tool combined with its already known explanatory capabilities, filling the gap in the explanatory-predictive gamut with a reliable method to perform theory informed predictions.

    CONTENT ACKNOWLEDEGMENT i INDEX OF FIGURES iv INDEX OF TABLES iv I. INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION 1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW 3 1. EXPLANATORY VS PREDICTIVE MODELING 3 2. PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES PATH MODELING (PLS-PM) 5 2.1. STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING AND THE CB-SEM METHOD 5 2.2. THE PLS PATH MODEL 6 2.3. THE PATH MODEL THEORY 9 2.4. THE ALGORITHM 10 2.5. PLS-PM UTILIZATION 13 2.6. SOFTWARE IMPLEMENTATION 14 3. PREDICTING WITH PLS-PM 16 3.1. WHAT DO WE PREDICT WITH PLS-PM 17 3.2. PREDICTIVE PLS-PM MODELS 17 III. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY PROCEDURES 19 1. THE PREDICTION ALGORITHM 19 2. EVALUATING PREDICTIVE POWER 21 2.1. THE CROSS-VALIDATION TECHNIQUE 22 2.2. PREDICTIVE POWER MEASURES 23 3 SIMULATING DATA WITH R PACKAGE SIMSEM 23 4 BENCHMARKING OUR PREDICTIONS 24 IV. EVALUATING PREDICTABILITY 25 1. ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION TOOLS 25 2. TEST MODEL 26 2.1. SAMPLE DATA 27 2.2. CROSS-VALIDATION SETUP 27 3. LINEAR MODEL BENCHMARK 27 4. RESULTS 28 4.1. ACCURACY OF PREDICTIONS 28 4.2. PLS VS LM AGREABILITY 30 4.3. PREDICTION ERRORS COMPARISON 31 5. PREDICTIVE POWER AND EXPLAINED THEORY 33 5.1. REINFORCED THEORY AND APPLICABLE MODELS 34 5.2. PREDICTING FROM DIFFERENT PATHS 34 V. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS 36 REFERENCES v APPENDIX vii APPENDIX A: ESTIMATION FUNCTION IN R CODE vii APPENDIX B: PREDICTION FUNCTION IN R CODE x

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