在面對高度不確定與複雜性的研發合作中，履約風險是影響合作成果與制度穩定的重要課題。既有研究多聚焦於契約設計與激勵機制，較少從「合作歷程」出發，系統性探討合作條件如何轉化為履約風險，特別缺乏以「受託單位」視角所建構之實證分析。

本研究以國內某研究機構4,275筆契約型研發合作案為實證場域，依履約流程劃分為洽談期、履約期與結果期三階段，建構三階段迴歸模型與結構方程模型（SEM），剖析合作條件透過制度歷程轉化為履約風險的傳導機制，並操作具可觀測性的中介變數，包括契約審議期與帳務處理期，實證檢驗制度壓力與交易成本的中介效果。

分析結果顯示，履約風險多由合作條件與制度安排於歷程中交錯傳導而成，非單一路徑所致。SEM歸納出三種風險生成邏輯：「間接強化型」、「直接主導型」與「張力抵銷型」，反映不同合作條件所對應的治理挑戰。

研究建議指出，政府補貼具穩定制度節奏之效，惟申辦與執行過程中需關注第一線承辦人所面臨之代理風險；對於高風險合作類型與內部張力結構，應強化歷程節點作為風險預警訊號的制度化應用，並採取差異化治理策略。

整體而言，本研究提出一套合作條件轉化為履約風險的制度性觀察架構，補充文獻對合作歷程與執行壓力的忽視，亦為制度設計、風險管理與AI監測提供可驗證之操作模式。

In the context of complex and uncertain R&D collaborations, contractual risk is a critical concern that shapes project outcomes and institutional trust. While existing literature tends to emphasize contract design and incentive alignment, few studies systematically explore how collaborative conditions transform into risk through implementation processes — especially from the contractor's perspective.

This study examines 4,275 R&D contracts from a national research institute in Taiwan, constructing a three-stage risk transmission framework based on the negotiation, execution, and outcome phases. Regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) are used to investigate how collaborative features interact with institutional processes to shape performance risks. Observable mediators such as contract review duration and accounting clearance time are employed to capture the mediating effects of institutional pressure and transaction costs.

Findings show that risk does not arise from a single factor but through intertwined transmission mechanisms involving both collaboration and institutional structures. The SEM analysis identifies three risk formation logics: (1) intermediated reinforcement, (2) direct domination, and (3) tension offsetting. Each represents a distinct governance challenge.

Policy implications highlight that government subsidies contribute to procedural stability but may increase agency risk for project officers. The study recommends using process indicators as early-warning signals and adopting differentiated governance strategies based on collaboration types.

This research provides a process-based and empirically testable framework for understanding how institutional arrangements mediate risk in R&D partnerships. It contributes to the literature on collaboration governance and offers practical insight into risk monitoring and policy design.