本研究以 2022 年新竹市長選舉為主要探討對象，目的是探討台灣地方選舉中突破傳統藍綠對抗的新型競爭情勢。新竹市作為科技重鎮，選民結構具有高教育、高收入、年輕化特徵，在此次選舉中，除了國民黨與民進黨兩大傳統勢力，台灣民眾黨亦以高虹安之姿強勢參選，形成三角督局面，引起社會與媒體高度關注。

本研究的動機來自於在台灣地方選舉中，政黨板塊影響力逐漸流動，傳統藍綠對抗格局逐步鬆動，新興政黨如何憑藉組織動員、議題操作與透過對選民心理的掌握實現勝出，成為值得深入關注的重要議題。本研究以新竹市122個里為分析單位，採用問卷調查法與量化統計分析，搜集中央選舉委員會資料、新竹市民政處公開數據及里長、地方仕紳的訪談結果，並透過多元迴歸分析，探究各候選人得票比例的影響因素。

研究結果指出組織經營能力是影響林耕仁、沈慧虹與高虹安得票率的共同關鍵因素。三位候選人中，高虹安在高學歷、高收入選區的表現顯著較優，塑造出的年輕專業風格及對議題的精準掌握高度相關。而傳統的曝光方式變數在統計上未達顯著，可能與里長、地方仕紳在填答問卷時的觀察落差與主觀偏好有關。選舉末期的藍白選民的棄保效應，被視為促成高虹安勝選的關鍵因素。

本研究不僅說明影響選舉結果的選民行為與政黨策略，同時反映出台灣地方政治版圖的變化趨勢。民眾黨成功以新政治、專業、年輕化的形象吸引都市選民，突破傳統兩黨之爭，首次在新竹市取得執政，開啟了地方政治多元化與政黨競爭的新局。研究最後提到在未來選舉中，政黨若想取得勝選，除需強化組織基礎外，還要深入理解選民結構、掌握議題操作、回應特定選民的需求與期盼，並在選舉最後衝刺階段，做好有效策略整合，以面對地方選舉中持續升高的競爭強度與複雜程度。

This study focuses on the 2022 Hsinchu mayoral election, aiming to explore the emergence of new forms of competition in Taiwan’s local elections beyond the traditional blue-green (Kuomintang-Democratic Progressive Party) rivalry. As a major technology hub, Hsinchu’s electorate is characterized by high levels of education, income, and youthfulness. In this election, alongside the traditional powerhouses - the Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), represented by Ann Kao (Kao Hung-an), entered the race with strong momentum, creating a three-way contest that garnered significant public and media attention.

The motivation for this research arises from the observation that Taiwan’s local political landscape is undergoing significant shifts, with party influence becoming increasingly fluid and blue-green polarization gradually weakening. How emerging parties leverage organizational mobilization, issue framing, and the strategic understanding of voter psychology to secure electoral victories has become a critical topic deserving in-depth investigation. Using Hsinchu’s 122 administrative districts as analytical units, this study employed surveys and quantitative statistical methods, drawing on data from the Central Election Commission, the Hsinchu City Civil Affairs Office, and interviews with local leaders and neighborhood heads. Multiple regression analysis was applied to examine the factors influencing the vote shares of each major candidate.

The results of this study indicate that organizational management capacity constitutes a shared critical factor influencing the vote shares of Lin Geng-ren, Shen Hui-hung, and Ann Kao. Among the three candidates, Ann Kao exhibited a significantly stronger performance in constituencies characterized by higher levels of education and income. This outcome is closely associated with her youthful and professional public image and her precise articulation of policy issues.Conversely, traditional forms of exposure, such as grassroots mobilization or physical publicity, failed to reach statistical significance. This may be attributed to perceptual discrepancies and subjective biases among local leaders and influential community figures (e.g., village chiefs and local elites) during their responses to the survey.Furthermore, the strategic voting behavior observed during the final phase of the election—specifically the abandonment of candidates within the Pan-Blue and Pan-White camps—is regarded as a pivotal factor contributing to Ann Kao’s electoral victory.

This study not only illustrates how voter behavior and party strategies shape electoral outcomes, but also reflects the shifting dynamics of Taiwan’s local political landscape. The TPP successfully attracted urban voters with a fresh political image centered on professionalism and youth, breaking the traditional two-party dominance and, for the first time, securing governance in Hsinchu. The findings suggest that in future elections, parties seeking victory must not only strengthen their grassroots organization, but also deeply understand voter structures, master issue framing, respond to the specific needs and expectations of target voter groups, and effectively coordinate strategies during the critical final campaign phase to face the escalating intensity and complexity of local electoral competition.