房地產市場是經濟體中極為重要的組成部分，其價格波動不僅影響個人消費能力，對金融業的穩定性也具有深遠影響。此外，房地產價格因地區差異而存在顯著落差。然而，在過去十年，台灣的房價普遍呈現持續上漲的趨勢，民生需求隨著通膨同步升高，自2024年9月20日中央銀行啟動第七波信用管制政策以來，國內房地產市場逐漸顯現交易量收縮與預期心理轉變的趨勢。本研究以「房價預期1年內是否上漲」為應變數，採用問卷調查法蒐集實證資料，並運用二元羅吉斯迴歸（Binary Logistic Regression）分析受訪者的生活層面與主觀政策感受是否影響其房價預期。自變數包括年齡、收入、職業類別、購屋計畫、購屋時機、政策認知、政策影響感受及購屋區域偏好，並進一步探討交互作用（政策認知 × 購屋行為、政策認知 × 年齡）之影響。
本研究指出，年齡、政策認知、購屋時機與區域偏好等變項，對房價預期具顯著性或接近顯著性影響，驗證了年齡、政策認知、購屋時機與區域偏好，及交互項「非常了解 × 觀望中」相較於各自變數回答之基準組，對於民眾房價之預期較能影響。尤其是對於第七波信用管制非常了解和略有了解的民眾，將較於完全不了解，對於房價預期保守或是悲觀。符合政府抑制市場過度炒作、降低預期性買盤的政策目標。研究結果可以補足目前量化研究之不足，亦對政府政策宣導與不動產市場預期管理提供具體實證參考，以及對民眾主觀預期與心理因素探討，亦可作為政府未來進行政策溝通與市場預期管理之參考依據。

The real estate market is a critical component of the overall economy. Its price fluctuations not only affect individual consumption capacity but also have far-reaching implications for financial stability. Although significant regional differences exist in housing prices, Taiwan has experienced a generally upward trend in real estate prices over the past decade. As inflation has driven up basic living costs, housing affordability has become an increasingly pressing concern. Following the implementation of the seventh wave of credit control measures by the Central Bank on September 20, 2024, the domestic real estate market has shown signs of transaction volume contraction and shifts in public price expectations.
This study investigates the impact of lifestyle factors and subjective policy perceptions on public expectations regarding housing prices within the next year. Using a questionnaire survey to collect empirical data, the research employs binary logistic regression analysis to examine the influence of variables such as age, income, occupation, home-buying plans, perceived timing of purchase, policy awareness, perceived policy impact, and regional preference. Furthermore, the study explores interaction effects, particularly between policy awareness and home-buying behavior, and between policy awareness and age.
The results indicate that variables such as age, policy awareness, purchase timing, and regional preference have significant or near-significant impacts on housing price expectations. Notably, respondents who were highly aware of the credit control policy and were in a wait-and-see stage regarding home purchases were more likely to expect price stabilization or decline, compared to those in the respective reference groups. This supports the policy objective of curbing speculative behavior and reducing expectation-driven demand. The findings contribute to the existing quantitative literature by incorporating subjective and psychological dimensions, offering practical insights for government policy communication and market expectation management. They also provide empirical evidence for enhancing public understanding of macroprudential policies and their influence on housing market sentiment.