研究生: |
連俊傑 Chun-chieh Lien |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
Intra-Industry Credit Contagion---Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market 產業內的信用傳染效果---信用違約交換市場的實證研究 |
指導教授: |
張焯然
Jow-ran Chang |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 計量財務金融學系 Department of Quantitative Finance |
論文出版年: | 2008 |
畢業學年度: | 96 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 46 |
中文關鍵詞: | credit default swap 、bankruptcy 、credit contagion 、hedge |
外文關鍵詞: | 信用違約交換, 破產, 信用傳染, 避險 |
相關次數: | 點閱:113 下載:0 |
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“Contagion effect” doesn’t contain only negative news. The good contagion effect is the competition effect we call in this paper. Similarly, bankruptcy doesn’t make people in despair. Sometimes the bad credit risk event brings firms a good opportunity to grow up. Due to closely relationships between firms in the same industry, we construct the different industry portfolios and detect the contagion and competition effect in the intra-industry.
In our empirical study, we find that Chapter 11 bankruptcy events dominate contagion and competition effect in credit default swap market. It depends on the characteristics of the industry portfolio. The bankruptcy firms suffer contagion effect from credit events. The sound companies get benefit from the competition effect. We discover the credit risk implied in the credit default swap market. Besides the spread changes in each industry portfolio provide a new impression in the different industry.
本文探討產業內的信用傳染問題,利用美國Chapter 11破產保護法來觀察破產事件發生前後同產業內的其他公司組合是否會受到影響。在本文中「傳染」不僅包含負面的訊息和意涵,甚至帶來正面的影響。所謂「近朱者赤,近墨者黑」的道理,存在各個產業的公司內且彼此互相影響。
我們根據信用違約交換的報價變化來反映產業內公司的信用傳染效果。在實證結果上,顯示對於違約的公司組合有傳染效果,而對於健全的公司組合有競爭效果。透過本文新建立的公司組合,我們可以真正了解破產事件的影響,並透過此現象去建立一個最佳的避險策略,來降低破產事件帶來的非預期損失。
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