研究生: |
尼克 Danks. Nicholas Patrick |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
預測性PLS之初探:導入、模擬、視覺化 A First Glimpse of Predictive PLS: Implementation, Simulation, Visualization |
指導教授: |
雷松亞
Ray, Soumya |
口試委員: |
徐茉莉
Shmueli, Galit 許裴舫 Hsu, Pei-Fang |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 國際專業管理碩士班 International Master of Business Administration(IMBA) |
論文出版年: | 2016 |
畢業學年度: | 104 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 42 |
中文關鍵詞: | Partial Least Squares 、Path Modelling 、Predictive Analytics 、Case-wise Prediction |
外文關鍵詞: | Partial Least Squares, Path Modelling, Predictive Analytics, Case-wise Prediction |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
Although previous studies have offered procedures to perform predictive analytics on PLS path models, there are no guidelines for practitioners on what good or bad predictive characteristics are, what kinds of PLS models might benefit from predictive analysis, and how predictive characteristics of PLS models should be displayed and reported in publications. We seek to rectify this gap in academic practice by systematically analyzing the predictive performance of simulated PLS models with varying measurement and structural properties, and by visually examining their predictive performance.
We used the SimSem package to simulate data for these models. This package was created for the R Statistical Environment in order to perform MonteCarlo simulations of Structural Equation Models. We generated three simulated models: (a) a model with near perfect measurement and structural properties; (b) a model with deteriorated measurement more typical to real world studies; and (c) a model using data following a discrete Likert-type scale typically used in psychometric and management studies.
Our findings show that under excellent conditions, PLS models can indeed generate highly precise case-level predictions. However, we also illustrate there are lower limits of measurement quality below which studies simply cannot offer practical case-level claims. We also found that Likert scales can be accommodated by predictive PLS, though we caution that there is still room for debate on what prediction means in these situations. Finally, we show that all the above situations can be found in empirical studies, and offer ways to interpret these results.
Although previous studies have offered procedures to perform predictive analytics on PLS path models, there are no guidelines for practitioners on what good or bad predictive characteristics are, what kinds of PLS models might benefit from predictive analysis, and how predictive characteristics of PLS models should be displayed and reported in publications. We seek to rectify this gap in academic practice by systematically analyzing the predictive performance of simulated PLS models with varying measurement and structural properties, and by visually examining their predictive performance.
We used the SimSem package to simulate data for these models. This package was created for the R Statistical Environment in order to perform MonteCarlo simulations of Structural Equation Models. We generated three simulated models: (a) a model with near perfect measurement and structural properties; (b) a model with deteriorated measurement more typical to real world studies; and (c) a model using data following a discrete Likert-type scale typically used in psychometric and management studies.
Our findings show that under excellent conditions, PLS models can indeed generate highly precise case-level predictions. However, we also illustrate there are lower limits of measurement quality below which studies simply cannot offer practical case-level claims. We also found that Likert scales can be accommodated by predictive PLS, though we caution that there is still room for debate on what prediction means in these situations. Finally, we show that all the above situations can be found in empirical studies, and offer ways to interpret these results.
Bagozzi, R. P., & Yi, Y. (1988). On the evaluation of structural equation models. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 16(1), 74–94.
Burns, A., Burns, R., (2008). Basic Marketing Research (2nd edition). New Jersey: Pearson Education. p. 245. ISBN 978-0-13-205958-9.
Efron, B., Tibshirani, R., (1997). Improvement on cross-validation: the .632+ bootstrap method. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1997; 92: 548-560
Evermann, J. and Tate, M., (2014). Comparing Out-of-Sample Predictive Ability of PLS, Covariance, and Regression Models. Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Information Systems, Auckland.
Gaston, A., Trinchera, L., & Russolillo, G. (2015). R Statistical Environment Package, “plspm”.
Gelman et al. (2003) Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd Edition.
Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., & Anderson, R. E. (2010). Multivariate data analysis (7th ed.). Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
Hair, J. F., Hult, J. G. T. M., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2014). A Primer on Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM).
Hair, J., Sarstedt, M., Pieper, T., & Ringle, C. (2012a). The use of partial least squares structural equation modeling in strategic management research: A review of past practices and recommendations for future applications. Long Range Planning, 45, 320—340
Hair J., Ringle C.M. & Sarstedt M. (2011) PLS-SEM: Indeed a Silver Bullet, Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 19:2, 139-152. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/MTP1069-6679190202
Hair, J et al., (2012). An assessment of the use of partial least squares structural equation modelling in marketing research. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 40: 414. DOI:10.1007/s11747-011-0261-6
Henseler, J., Ringle, C. M., & Sinkovics, R. R. (2009). The use of partial least squares path modeling in international marketing. Advances in international marketing, 20, 277–319.
Hyndman, RJ., Koehler, AB. (2006) Another look at measures of forecast accuracy, International Journal of Forecasting, Pages 679-688, ISSN 0169-2070, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001.
Hulland, J. (1999). Use of partial least squares (PLS) in strategic management research: a review of four recent studies. Strategic Management Journal, 20(2), 195–204.
Lohmöller J.B. (1989). Latent Variable Path Modeling with Partial Least Squares, Physica-Verlag Heidelberg, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-52512-4
Monecke, A., & Leisch, F. (2012). semPLS : Structural Equation Modeling Using Partial Least Squares. Journal of Statistical Software, 48(3).
Pornprasertmanit S., Miller P., Schoemann A, Quick C., Jorgensen T., (2016). R Package SimSem (version 5-13) https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/simsem/index.html
Ringle, C., Sarstedt, M., & Straub, D. (2012). A critical look at the use of PLS-SEM in MIS Quarterly. MIS Quarterly, 36, iii–xiv.
Rönkkö M. (2016). R Statistical Environment Package, “matrixpls”.
Schlittgen, R. (2015). R package SEGIRLS (version 0.5). http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/fileadmin/bwl/statistikundoekonometrie/Schlittgen/SoftwareUndDaten/SEGIRLS_0.5.tar.gz
Shmueli, G., et al. (2016). The elephant in the room: Predictive performance of PLS models, Journal of Business Research, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2016.03.049
Shmueli, G. (2010). To Explain or Predict? Statistical Science, Vol. 25, No. 3 (August 2010), pp. 289-310, http://www.jstor.org/stable/41058949
Shmueli, G. and Koppius, O.R. (2011). Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research, MIS Quarterly Vol. 35 No. 3 pp. 553-572/September 2011
Temme, D., Kreis, H., & Hildebrandt, L. (2011). A Comparison of Current PLS PathModeling Software: Features, Ease-of-Use, and Performance. In Handbook of Partial Least Squares.
Velasquez Estrada J.M. (2015) Generating and Evaluating Predictions with PLS Path Modeling, National Tsing Hua University.