研究生: |
陳威豪 Chen, Wei-Hao |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
電動車產業分析-以TESLA評價為例 Analysis of the Electric Vehicle Industry – A Case Study on TESLA Valuation |
指導教授: |
蔡子晧
Tsai, Tzu-Hao |
口試委員: |
余士迪
Yu, Shih-Ti 莊明哲 Chuang, Ming-Che 莊明熙 Zhuang, Ming-Xi |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 財務金融 Master Program of Finance and Banking |
論文出版年: | 2022 |
畢業學年度: | 110 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 43 |
中文關鍵詞: | 電動車 、高登模型 、資本資產定價模型 、加權平均資金成本 、現金流量折現法 、既定政策情境 、碳中和情境 |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
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2021 年《格拉斯哥氣候公約》明定在 2050 年實現淨零碳排放,各個國家面對氣候變遷的問題,首要目標就是要降低二氧化碳排放,對抗全球暖化。因此,發展電動車是許多國家欲求解決碳排放問題的策略選擇。在這銳不可檔的趨勢下,丹麥哥本哈根市、法國巴黎、德國漢堡等地甚至已經公布禁止非電動車上路的預計執行年份及區域,由此不難想像不久的未來,電動車將全面取代燃油車。而 TESLA 為全球電動車第一大廠,在各國推動燃油車轉型為電動車的政策下,TESLA 電動車產量以及銷售數量都連年創下新高紀錄,公司股價及市值也接連創造驚奇寫下新的紀錄,成為了各國資金追捧的對象,公司執行長 Elon Musk 也因此成為了全球首富,本篇論文的研究動機及目的即是想運用高登模型 (Gordon Model)、資本資產定價模型 (Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM)、加權平均資金成本 (weighted average cost of capital, WACC) 及現金流量折現法 (Discounted Cash Flow Model, DCF),並使用國際能源署發布之2021年全球電動汽車展望報告,其內容所假設之兩種情境,分別為 The Stated Policies Scenario (既定政策情境,STEPS) 與 The Sustainable Development Scenario (碳中和情境,SDS),評估作為全球電動車廠龍頭的 TESLA,基於電動車產業的未來趨勢下,合理的股價評價。
The Glasgow Climate Pact in 2021 explicitly aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and the primary goal of all countries facing the problem of climate change is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and combat global warming. Therefore, the development of electric vehicles is the strategic choice of many countries to solve the problem of carbon emissions. With this unstopped tendency, the city of Copenhagen, the French city of Paris, and the German city of Hamburg have even announced the expected year and area of enforcement for banning non-electric vehicles from the road. It can be seen that in the near future, electric vehicles will completely replace fuel vehicles. TESLA is the world's largest manufacturer of electric vehicles. With the policy of promoting the conversion of fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, TESLA has been producing and selling electric vehicles at record highs year after year, and the company's stock price and market value have also set new records and become the target of pursuit of funds from all over the world. Elon Musk, the CEO of the company, has also become the richest man in the world. The research motivation and purpose of this paper is to explore the use of Gordon Model, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF), and use the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 released by IEA, which assumes two scenarios, The Stated Policies Scenario and The Sustainable Development Scenario to evaluate TESLA as the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturer, based on the future trend of the electric vehicle industry, a reasonable stock price evaluation.
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