本研究旨在探討台灣貨幣政策對銀行風險的影響及不同類型的銀行表外業務對貨幣政策變動的反應。通過迴歸分析台灣銀行業的追蹤資料，並以表外業務作為風險變數，我們分析了貨幣政策的鬆緊對銀行前瞻性風險的影響。本文的主要發現如下：第一，相較於政策利率短期的升降，貨幣政策中長期的鬆緊狀態對於銀行表外業務的影響更顯著。第二，公股銀行的表外業務活動面對貨幣衝擊時的反應較民營銀行大，此反應公股銀行相較民營銀行有較高的道德風險危機。第三，大型民營銀行面對貨幣衝擊時，表外業務活動並沒有異於其他銀行，說明雖然大型民銀行面對之預算限制可能類似於公股銀行，卻仍保持謹慎管理風險的態度。

This study aims to investigate the impact of Taiwan's monetary policy on banking risk and the response of different types of banks' off-balance-sheet activities to changes in monetary policy. By conducting regression analysis on panel data from Taiwan's banking industry and using off-balance-sheet activities as a risk variable, we analyzed the effect of the monetary policy on banks' forward-looking risk. The main findings of this paper are as follows: First, compared to short-term changes in policy interest rates, the medium- to long-term stance of monetary policy has a more significant impact on banks' off-balance-sheet activities. Second, public banks' off-balance-sheet activities react more strongly to monetary shocks than those of private banks, indicating a higher moral hazard risk in public banks compared to private banks. Third, large private banks do not exhibit significantly different responses in their off-balance-sheet activities to monetary shocks compared to other banks, suggesting that although large private banks may face budget constraints similar to public banks, they still maintain a cautious attitude in risk management.

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