研究生: |
林邦傑 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
近代貨幣傳導機制理論之發展 The Development of Recent Monetary Transimission Mechanism Theory |
指導教授: | 趙相科 |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
論文出版年: | 2004 |
畢業學年度: | 92 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 91 |
中文關鍵詞: | 貨幣傳導機制 、James Tobin 、Allan H. Meltzer 、Karl Brunner 、Ben S. Bernanke 、因果關係 |
外文關鍵詞: | the monetary transimission mechanism, James Tobin, Allan H. Meltzer, Karl Brunner, Ben S. Bernanke, causality |
相關次數: | 點閱:81 下載:0 |
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摘要
本文將討論Tobin, Brunner和Meltzer, Bernanke三者之貨幣傳導機制,其次探討造成各不同學派差異之原因以及此差異對經濟活動之影響。最後由三者之實證方法,以Morrison and Morgan (1999) 之觀點討論理論、模型與經驗事實之關係,並且分析三者實證因果關係之論證。
本文發現在貨幣傳導機制之理論中,Tobin與Bernanke可視為是凱因斯學派之理論,前者繼承傳統凱因斯學派價格僵固性之假說與強調資金成本傳遞管道之主要精神;而後者所提倡之信用學派中信用仲介成本之傳遞管道則可視為凱因斯學派在考慮信用市場後之資金成本傳遞管道。而Brunner和Meltzer主張之相對價格傳遞管道之貨幣學派傳導機制理論,則被認為是凱因斯學派之競爭理論。
此外,在分析理論、模型與經驗事實之關聯中,發現Tobin與Bernanke之實證模型較偏重於檢驗其理論與經驗事實是否一致,但差別在於Tobin之實證模型為Tobin’s q與其解釋變數關係之測量工具;而Bernanke之實證模型則另可作為發現或精鍊理論之工具。相較之下,Meltzer之實證模型較偏向透過陳述與說明的方式來驗證其傳導機制理論,較不關注於利用實證模型檢定理論與經驗事實是否一致。
最後,在因果關係的論證上,Tobin之因果論證是結合經濟計量方法與經濟理論以進行因果推論,時間轉折點之研究方式則非其評斷因果關係之證據;而Meltzer與Bernanke則倚賴循環轉折點之時間領先指標作為其因果關係論證之依據,兩者之差異在於Bernanke是利用Granger Causality作為整個因果關係解釋的主要依據,透過衝擊反應函數來達到時間點轉折之研究,而Meltzer僅是由經驗事實中顯示經濟變數時間點轉折之先後順序。
Abstract
This thesis investigates the history of the development of the monetary transmission mechanism. The theories of Tobin, Brunner and Meltzer, and Benanke are taken as case studies. The differences between these channels of monetary transmission mechanism are discussed historically and methodology. Historically, Tobin’s capital-cost channel and Benanke’s credit channel are regarded as Keynesian, while Brunner and Meltzer’s relative-price channel is more close to monetarist tradition. Methodologically, as long as the relationships between theory, model and data are concerned, Tobin’s, Brunner and Meltzer’s, and Bernanke’s empirical models perform various functions. The issues of testing and causality are studied.
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