研究生: |
林彥丞 Lin, Yen Cheng |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
衡量信用違約交換的利率風險與信用風險 Measuring Interest Rate Risk and Credit Risk of Credit Default Swaps |
指導教授: |
鍾經樊
Chung, Ching-Fan 徐南蓉 Hsu, Nan-Jung |
口試委員: |
張焯然
Chang, Jow-Ran 鍾經樊 Chung, Ching-Fan 徐南蓉 Hsu, Nan-Jung |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
理學院 - 統計學研究所 Institute of Statistics |
論文出版年: | 2015 |
畢業學年度: | 103 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 54 |
中文關鍵詞: | 信用違約交換 、違約強度 、違約機率 、利率期限結構 、DNS模型 、損失分配 、風險衡量 |
外文關鍵詞: | Credit Default Swap, Default Intensity, Default Probability, Term Structure of Interest Rates, Dynamic Nelson-Siegel, Loss Distribution, Risk Measurement |
相關次數: | 點閱:1 下載:0 |
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銀行或券商交易金融商品除了面對市場利率風險外,在商品持有期間中,金融商品債務人信用下降造成違約機率上升的損失也不可忽視,如何同時衡量與控管利率風險與信用風險是銀行風管的重要課題。
本文研究如何從信用違約交換中(CDS) 推導違約強度與對應的違約機率,進而與無風險利率結合為包含利率與信用風險的利率期限結構,並採用Dynamic Nelson-Siegel模型對此利率期限結構進行實證估計,最後使用蒙地卡羅模擬十日損失分配與風險值,做為銀行對其風險性資產計提資本的參考。
When a bank trades financial instruments, what it faced is mainly interest rate risks. But it also cannot ignore the potential loss caused by debtors’ credit downgrades. How to accurately measure and manage both types of risks is an important task for all banks.
In this thesis, we examine how to derive the default intensity and corresponding probability of default in the credit default swap (CDS), and then combine it with the risk-free rate. We then use Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model to estimate this combined structure. In the last stage, we use Monte Carlo method to simulate ten day Value at Risk as a measure for Banks' risk-based capital requirement.
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