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研究生： 許晨艷
Xu, Chenyan
論文名稱： 中國代内收入流動性的影響因素—基於CFPS數據的實證研究
Determinants of Intragenerational Income Mobility in China —Evidence from CFPS
指導教授： 吳世英
Wu, Shih-Ying
口試委員: 蔡璧涵
Tsai, Pi-Han
曾富民
Tseng, Fu-Min
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 科技管理學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年： 2021
畢業學年度： 109
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 57
中文關鍵詞： 代際收入流動性 、代內收入流動性 、家庭 、個人 、中國 、轉移矩陣 、有序概率回歸
外文關鍵詞： intergenerational income mobility, intragenerational income mobility, family, individual, China, transition matrix, ordered probit regression
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    • 中國的基尼係數在過去十年中一直很高，這意味著中國是一個收入差距較大的國家。然而，公平不僅體現在高收入群體與低收入群體收入平等的程度上，而且還應考慮到是否低收入群體有比較高的機會成爲高收入群體。收入流動性可以反映這種收入不平等的動態變化過程。
    收入流動性包括同一家庭不同代人之間的收入不平等，稱為“代際流動”，以及同一代人不同家庭之間的收入不平等，稱為“代內流動”（Becker和Tomes，1979）。
    在本文中，我們檢定了2010-2018年間中國的代內收入流動性。我們關注個人或家庭層面的收入流動性，並討論流動性的決定因素。我們使用CFPS數據分析個人/家庭因素的影響，並討論其對社會政策的影響。
    我們發現，個人或家庭的收入流動性受到多種因素的影響，包括經濟環境、勞動力市場、人力和物質資本等諸多因素。經濟增長率、義務教育階段學生人均公共預算、受教育程度、移居外省對收入流動性有正向影響，但初始收入、勞動收入佔總收入的比重對其產生負向影響。這些發現在一定程度上對提高中國收入流動性的政策有所幫助。

    China's Gini coefficient has been very high over the past ten years, which means that China is a country with a large income gap. However, fairness is not only reflected in the extent of income equality between the rich and the poor, but also consider whether there is a high opportunity to move from the poor to the rich. Income mobility can reflect the dynamics of income inequality.
    Income mobility includes the inequality in income between different generations of the same family, which is called “intergenerational mobility”, and the inequality in income between different families in the same generation, which is called “intragenerational mobility” (Becker and Tomes, 1979).
    In this thesis, we examine the intragenerational income mobility in China during 2010-2018. We focus on the income mobility at individual or household level and discuss the determinants of the mobility. We use the CFPS data to analyze the influence of individual/household factors and discuss its implication for social policies.
    We found that the income mobility of an individual or household is affected by various factors, including economic environment, labor market, their human and physical capital and many other factors. Economic growth rate, public budget of per student in compulsory education, education attainment, emigrating to other provinces have a positive impact on income mobility, but initial income, share of labor income in total income have a negative impact on it. To a certain extent, these findings are helpful to policies to improve China's income mobility.

    Contents Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Data and Procession 4 2.1 Samples 4 2.1.1 Individual Sample 4 2.1.2 Household Sample 5 2.2 Income 6 2.2.1 Household Total Income 6 2.2.2 Individual Labor Income 6 2.2.3 Individual Total Income 9 2.2.4 Household Labor Income 9 Chpater 3: Measurement Issues 10 3.1 Mobility 10 3.2 Two Measures of Income Mobility 11 Chapter 4: The Extent of Income Mobility from 2010 to 2018 13 4.1 Descriptive Statistics of Income 13 4.1.1 Individual 13 4.1.2 Household 13 4.2 Income Inequality 14 4.3 Transition Matrix 14 4.3.1 Individual 15 4.3.2 Household 18 Chpater 5: Empirical Strategy 21 5.1 Model Specification 21 5.2 Independent Variables 22 5.2.1 Variables for Economy 22 5.2.2 Human and Physical Capital Variables 24 5.2.3 Labor Market Variables 25 5.2.4 Other Variables 25 5.2.5 Variables for Individual Regression 26 5.2.6 Variables for Household Regression 28 Chapter 6: Results 34 6.1 Baseline Results 34 6.2 Robustness Check 1 42 6.3 Robustness Check 2 42 6.4 Robustness Check 3 42 Chapter 7: Conclusion 44 References 46 Appendix 49

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