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研究生: 吳雨潔
Yu-Chieh Wu
論文名稱: 選擇權指數型房貸與傳統指數型房貸之評價分析
The Valuation of Option Adjustable Rate Mortgages and Traditional Mortgages
指導教授: 林哲群
Che-Chun Lin
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 科技管理研究所
Institute of Technology Management
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 27
中文關鍵詞: 指數型房貸選擇權指數型房貸評價分析
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  • 指數型房貸已逐漸成為台灣借貸市場的主流,而國內的指數型房貸產品相較於國外的指數型房貸,構成因素相對單純且種類較少,因此本研究主要目的在於說明選擇權指數型房貸和傳統指數型房貸兩者之間基本特性之差異,並探討在相同比較基準下,藉由分析選擇權指數型房貸和傳統指數型房貸的現金流量,比較兩種產品之評價差異,其中傳統指數型房貸將以三種提前清償模型進行評估。更進一步分析各項契約變數與利率波動性對選擇權指數型房貸理論價值之敏感度,以期更深入價格設定及價格變化之間的差別,而能在各種情形之下得到更準確的評估,判斷選擇權指數型房貸價值之未來趨勢,或可供國內發展抵押貸款市場參考。
    由模擬結果得知,選擇權指數型房貸價值高於傳統指數型房貸,且使用OTS提前清償模型之傳統指數型房貸的評價亦高於使用CPR與PSA模型之指數型房貸,而在正常還款速度下,PSA與CPR之評價結果差異甚少。利率波動性及負攤提限制與選擇權指數型房貸之價格成反向關係,其他因素皆與價格正向關係。新興金融商品雖然帶來相當大的投資利益,但其中隱含的風險是投資人需要密切注意的,否則可能會造成借貸雙方之損失。

    關鍵詞:指數型房貸、選擇權指數型房貸、評價分析


    The adjustable-rate mortgages have gradually become the mainstream in the mortgage market in Taiwan. Comparing to the adjustable-rate mortgage products in foreign countries, such as the United States domestic ones seem to be simpler and less categories. This study elaborates the characters of option adjustable-rate mortgages (Option ARMs), and differentiates these from traditional adjustable-rate mortgages. Therefore, we can compare the value between these two products which use three kinds of prepayment models, and also using sensitivity analysis to develop more accurate evaluation.
    The price of Option ARMs is higher than traditional adjustable-rate mortgages by the result of simulations. By the way, the price of traditional adjustable-rate mortgages which use OTS prepayment model is also higher than those which use CPR or PSA prepayment model. Further more, the price of traditional adjustable-rate mortgages which use PSA prepayment model is almost the same as CPR in the normal prepaying speed. The volatility of interest rate and the limitation in negative amortization both go the negative way with Option ARMs, others are go the positive way.

    Key words: adjustable-rate mortgage, option ARM, pricing mortgage

    摘要.................................................................................................................................I Abstract..........................................................................................................................II 致謝辭..........................................................................................................................III 目錄..............................................................................................................................IV 圖次...............................................................................................................................V 表次...............................................................................................................................V 第一章 緒論................................................................................................................1 第一節 背景介紹................................................................................................1 第二節 研究動機................................................................................................1 第三節 研究目的................................................................................................2 第二章 選擇權指數型房貸之介紹............................................................................3 第一節 選擇權指數型房貸之特性....................................................................3 第二節 選擇權指數型房貸之優點....................................................................5 第三節 選擇權指數型房貸之風險....................................................................6 第三章 文獻回顧........................................................................................................8 第四章 研究方法......................................................................................................11 第一節 利率模型..............................................................................................11 第二節 提前清償模型......................................................................................11 第三節 評價模型..............................................................................................14 第五章 模擬結果與分析..........................................................................................16 第一節 評價結果..............................................................................................16 第二節 敏感度分析..........................................................................................18 第六章 結論與建議..................................................................................................24 參考文獻......................................................................................................................26

    一、中文部分

    1. 何澤蘭,1998年,「台灣不動產抵押債權證券化之推行及評價」,國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所。
    2. 陸文傑,2000年,「抵押貸款證券之評價— Implied Prepayment 之應用」,國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所。
    3. 郭姿伶,2000年,「住宅貸款之提前清償與逾期還款」,國立中正大學財務金融研究所。
    4. 林哲群,2005年,「住宅抵押貸款證券化」,財團法人中華民國證券暨期貨市場發展基金會。

    二、英文部分

    1. Black, F., and M. Scholes. (1973). “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities,” The Journal of Political Economy 81(3), pp.637-659.
    2. Calhoun, C. A., Deng, Y., (2002). “A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 24, pp.9-33.
    3. Cox, John C., Jonathan E. Ingersoll and Stephen A. Ross, (1985). “A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Econometrica 53(2), pp.385-407.
    4. Cunningham, D.F., and Capone, C.A., Jr. (1990). “The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgage,” The Journal of Finance, 45(5), pp.1687-1703.
    5. Dharan, V.G., (1997). “Pricing Path-Dependent Interest Rate Contingent Claims Using A Lattice,” Journal of Fixed Income, pp.40-49.
    6. Dunn, Kenneth B. and John J. McConnell, June (1981). “Valuation of GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities,” Journal of Finance 36, pp.599-616.
    7. Fitch Ratings, (2006). “Option ARM Risks and Criteria,” Residential Mortgage Criteria Report.
    8. Green, Jerry and John. B. Shoven, (1986). “The Effects of Interest Rates on
    Mortgage Prepayments,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, pp.41-59.
    9. Green, R.K., and Shilling, J.D., (1997).” The Impact of Initial-Year Discounts on ARM Prepayments.” Real Estate Economics. 25(3), pp.373-385.
    10. Hayre, L.S and K. Lauterbach (1993). “ Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis,” Handbook of Mortgage Backed Securities.
    11. Kau, James B., Donald C. Keenan, Walter J. Muller III and James F. Epperson, (1995). “The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 11, pp.5-36.
    12. Schwartz, Eduardo S., Walter N. Torous, (1992). “Prepayment, Default, and the Valuation of Mortgage Pass-through Securities,” Journal of Business, Vol.65, No.2, pp.221-239.
    13. Yang, Tyler T., Henry Buist and Isaac F. Megbolugbe, (1998). “An Analysis
    of the Ex Ante Probabilities of Mortgage Prepayment and Default,” Real Estate Economics 26(4), pp.651-676.

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