本文將原始泰勒法則加入部份調整機制,選定總體本益比與房價所得比等能衡量長期基本面價值的指標作為資產價格代理變數,探討1998Q1-2012Q2 期間,我國央行是否會透過貨幣政策回應資產價格之波動。
實證發現,我國貨幣政策反應函數無論對總體本益比或房價所得比的反應皆十分顯著,且央行對於房市和股市的回應並非完全相同。當總體本益比高於門檻值時,亦即股市可能存在泡沫時,央行會採取緊縮的貨幣政策抑制泡沫。相較於股票市場,央行對於房市的回應更為積極。當房價所得比低於門檻值時,一旦房價所得比提升,貨幣當局仍會透過逆向干預避免房市泡沫化發生。當資產價格高過門檻值、面臨泡沫化隱憂時,央行同樣採取逆向干預,但利率的調升幅度反而較小。因此,本研究結果可看出央行的確關注房市和股市的變化,有不對稱的反應行為,且對於房市和股市的回應並非完全相同。
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