本文主旨為探討桃園國際機場過去九年來準點率 ( On-Time Performance )的變化。本文蒐集98-106年間跑道、滑行道施工關閉次數、顯著危害天氣、航管因素等資料，進行實證分析。在利用多元迴歸法進行初步分析後，以固定效果模型 ( Fixed Effect Model ) 和隨機效果模型 ( Random Effect Model ) 進行分析，並從中選出適合者。結果顯示，跑道、滑行道施工關閉次數、顯著危害天氣、航管因素與準點率均呈負相關。最後以單跑道作業開始作為結構差異檢定的時間點，使用鄒檢定( Chow Test )進行檢定。此外，在縱橫資料迴歸分析 ( Panel Data Regression ) 中，Hausman Test檢定後以固定效果模型為佳。最後分析的結果，以航管因素影響機場準點率最嚴重。

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the changes in on-time performance of Taoyuan International Airport over the past nine years. The empirical analysis uses the data on notice to airmen, significant meteorological information and air traffic control delay from 2009 to 2017. After a preliminary analysis using the multi-factor linear regression method, our panel data analysis shows that the notice to airmen、significant meteorological information and air traffic control delay were significantly negatively correlated with on-time performance. The Chow test is used to examine whether there is a structure change at the beginning of the single runway outage. In addition, the Hausman test selects the fixed effects model compared with the random effects model. As a result of the final analysis, the impact of air traffic control delay on the airport on-time performance is the leading cause.

〔1〕江明哲(2015)，資料探勘技術應用於航空業航班延誤分析-以C公司為例，
國立中央大學
〔2〕周昀徵(2016)，航空公司之航網型態與機場競爭程度對航班延誤影響分析，
國立交通大學運輸與物流管理學系
〔3〕蔡世昌(2012)，航空網路中航班延誤之因果模式，國立交通大學運輸研究所
〔4〕林惠玲 陳正倉(2014)，基礎統計學 觀念與應用三版
〔5〕周義華 華泰出版 運輸工程第6版
〔6〕張紹勳(2016)，Stata與高等統計分析
〔7〕張紹勳(2016)，Stata在廣義時間序列的應用
〔8〕交通部核定「桃園國際機場道面整建及助導航設施提升工程計畫」，
(第二次修正版) 104年12月30日
〔9〕桃園國際機場105年年報，出版日期106年6月28日

〔1〕 Eric S. Lin, Shin-Kun Peng, Chia-Ming Yu (2016) Housing Market and Agglomeration of Rent-Seeking Activities: Implications for Regional Development
〔2〕 E. R. Mueller and G. B. Chatterji. Analysis of aircraft arrival and departure delay
characteristics. In AIAA aircraft technology, integration and operations (ATIO) conference, 2002.
〔3〕 Gordon J. Fielding. (2002) Transportation Research Part A：Policy and Practice
Volume 26, Issue 6, Pages 483-491
〔4〕 Yuqiong Bai (2006)，Analysis of aircraft arrival delay and airport on-time
Performance
〔5〕 Alice Sternberg, Jorge Soares, Diego Carvalho, Eduardo Ogasawara (2017)
A Review on Flight Delay Prediction
〔6〕 Airport Capacity Profiles May 2014 F.A.A. (2014)
〔7〕 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 (2017)
Growing Horizons full book ISBN: 978-2-9554382-2-6
〔8〕 Boeing Current Market Outlook 2017-2036 (2017)
Boeing Commercial Airplanes Market Analysis 2017/6/19
〔9〕 Michael Ball, Cynthia Barnhart, Martin Dresner, Mark Hansen, Kevin Neels,
Amedeo Odoni, Everett Peterson, Lance Sherry, Antonio Trani, Bo Zou (2010)
Total Delay Impact Study: a Comprehensive Assessment of the Costs and Impacts
of Flight Delay in the United States
〔10〕Kenneth Duncan Boyer (2004) Principles of Transportation Economics Chapter 5,
ISBN: 981-2-4464-9-4, 978-9-8124464-9-7