研究生: |
林淑華 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
我國央行貨幣政策反應函數與資產價格之實證研究 The Monetary Policy Reaction Function and Asset Prices in Taiwan |
指導教授: | 黃朝熙 |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
論文出版年: | 2008 |
畢業學年度: | 96 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 65 |
中文關鍵詞: | 反應函數 、資產價格 、泰勒法則 、門檻模型 |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
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1980年代以來世界各國發生導因於資產價格過度波動的幾次重大經濟衰退後,面對資產價格的波動對經濟體所可能引發的不良影響,資產價格的重要性、貨幣當局反應函數是否應納入資產價格、以及實證反應函數究竟有無對資產價格反應,在國內外皆有許多討論,而本文主要研究我國貨幣政策反應函數是否有對資產價格反應。
本文以Taylor’s rule前瞻式貨幣法則為主體,導入工具變數與Hansen(2000)門檻模型,利用預期通貨膨脹率的高低作為切割子樣本的依據,以股票指數年增率代替資產價格,實證我國貨幣政策反應函數究竟有無對資產價格做回應。
實證結果發現央行貨幣政策反應函數目標利率,對股價的反應季資料較月資料顯著。在低通貨膨脹預期期間,利率對股價有顯著正向回應,當股價指數年增率上升1%時,重貼現率目標會調升0.07%至0.09%;而在高通貨膨脹預期期間,重貼現率對股價有負向回應,當股價指數年增率上升1%時,利率目標會調降0.01%至0.03%。而以金融業隔夜拆款利率作為央行政策工具時,也能觀察到類似的傾向。
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