本研究檢驗了貸款人的部分提前清償行為與後續年度違約之間的關係，實證結果顯示部分提前清償與違約之間，存在著顯著的負向關係。
部分提前清償在西方國家並不常發生，國外相關文獻曾提及部分提前清償者，也僅限於探討造成其發生之因素與出現的機率。然而在亞洲地區，尤其是台灣，貸款人進行部分提前清償是相當普遍的，但不論是學術界或是金融機構，在推測貸款人將來是否會發生違約時，卻往往忽略此一變數所具有的解釋能力。
因應新版巴塞爾資本協定(New Basel ⅡAccord)的來臨，預期台灣也將於2006年底與國際正式接軌。藉時、若金融機構擬採用內部評等法計提風險性資本，在估計住宅抵押貸款的違約機率(PD)時，也應該將部分提前清償一併考慮進去，如此方得以為自身設定更為貼切的風險權數，使信用風險控管機制更具有風險敏感度導向。

In western countries, curtailment is not a popular payment behavior, but it is the dominant form of prepayment in Taiwan. Previous curtailment literatures were mainly focused on its factors and probability. However, by using a sample of over 10 years mortgage performance records from a Taiwan’s commercial bank, This paper examines the impact of mortgage curtailment behaviors on the subsequent default performance and the empirical result indicates that cumulative curtailment is significantly negative correlated with default.
With the advent of New Basel II Accord, banks in Taiwan are expected to follow it by the end of 2006. Consequently, banks which intend to apply for the advanced internal ratings-based approach (IRB) must take curtailment behavior into account. Otherwise, ignorance of the curtailment information would lead to a biased result of estimating the probability of default (PD). In so doing, banks could set up tailored risk weights further, and enhance their internal credit risk management.

一、中文部分
王濟川、郭志剛 (2003)，「Logistic 迴歸模型-方法及應用」，五南書局。
王鶴松(2003)，「新巴賽爾銀行資本適足率協定與風險管理」 ，銀行公會會訊13期。

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