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研究生: 姚光隆
Kuang-lung Yao
論文名稱: 住宅抵押貸款信用評分之研究
The Study of Mortgage Credit Scoring
指導教授: 林哲群
Che-Chun Li
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 科技管理研究所
Institute of Technology Management
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 37
中文關鍵詞: 住宅抵押貸款信用評分模型違約機率
外文關鍵詞: mortgage, credit risk, credit scoring
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  • 在傳統的住宅抵押貸款核貸過程中,銀行授信人員依據申請人之信用狀況做為貸放基礎,授信之准駁與審核人員經驗之主觀判斷有關,在此作業流程下,容易因為人為疏忽、判斷錯誤、同業競爭等因素而造成授信品質低落,因此建立客觀之信用評分模型,以分數高低作為貸放標準,藉以降低授信之違約風險,實屬必要。本研究即以此精神為出發點,將不同借款人之經濟狀況、財務特性量化,以計算其違約機率,並將違約機率轉換成分數,建立客觀的信用評分模型 (credit scoring model),期能提供銀行在住宅抵押貸款核貸過程中有一客觀且公正之評分依據,以藉此提高授信品質並保障銀行債權。


    In conventional mortgage lending process, bank manager decides whether to approve the mortgage applications based on the credit risk of applicants. However, the evaluation result may be distorted due to operational error such as lack of experience, manager’s subjective decision, or business competition. Therefore, it is essential to build a criterion to help bank manager to make right decisions.
    Credit scoring comprises a set of statistical models that quantify credit risks of loan applicants. It is also a process of assigning a single quantitative measure, the score, to represent the borrower’s probable future loan performance. Once credit scoring model has been set up, bank manager can deal with large volumes of lending decisions in an efficient, consistent, and controlled manner.
    The intent of this article is to develop a numerical credit evaluation model to quantify the applications’ financial status, and personal characteristic. With the help of the credit scoring model, bank manager can distinguish between “good” applicants and “bad” applicants in an efficient, stable, and accurate manner.

    目錄 摘要 I Abstract II 目錄 III 圖表目錄 IV 1. 緒論 - 1 - 1.1 研究背景 - 1 - 1.2 研究動機與目的 - 3 - 1.3 研究架構 - 4 - 2. 文獻回顧 - 5 - 2.1 住宅抵押貸款違約之影響因素 - 5 - 2.2 信用評分發展背景與相關文獻回顧 - 7 - 3. 研究方法 - 12 - 3.1 研究模型 - 12 - 3.2 資料來源 - 16 - 3.3 變數選取與結果之預測 - 17 - 4. 實證結果分析 - 21 - 4.1 實證分析 - 21 - 4.2 信用評分模型實證 - 24 - 5. 結論與建議 - 32 - 參考文獻 - 34 - 圖表目錄 圖一 本國銀行近四年逾放比與備抵呆帳相對逾期放款比值趨勢圖……….....- 4 - 圖二 違約機率與貸款年齡分佈圖……………………………………………...- 22 - 圖三 評分次數分配圖…………………………………………………………...- 24 - 圖四 違約機率與評分之分佈關係………..…………………………………….- 25 - 圖五 正常戶與違約戶累積分佈圖(違約機率別)……………………………….- 25 - 圖六 正常戶與違約戶分佈圖……………………………………………….…..- 28 - 圖七 正常戶與違約戶累積分佈圖(分數別)…………………………………….- 28 - 表一 政策性房屋低利貸款表……………………………………………….......- 2 - 表二 近三年房屋貸款額佔消費性貸款額與總貸款額百分比………………...- 2 - 表三 本國銀行近四年逾放比與備抵呆帳相對逾期放款比值………………...- 4 - 表四 影響FICO評分之主要因素與權重說明……………………………….....- 8 - 表五 統計方法之優缺點比較表……………………………………………….- 10 - 表六 資料刪除之影響因素與個數表………………………………………….- 17 - 表七 各變數之敘述統計量……………………………………………………..-18 - 表八 違約機率之估計係數…………………………………………………….- 23 - 表九 提前清償機率之估計係數……………………………………………….- 23 - 表十 貸款違約機率分佈表…………………………………………………….- 26 - 表十一 貸款分數分佈表……………………………………………….………..- 29 - 表十二 信用評分模型預測能力表……………………………………………...- 31 - 表十三 無母數統計檢定表………………………..…………………………….- 31 -

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