簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 王建勛
Wang, Chien-Hsun
論文名稱: 金融與能源市場間的外溢效果: 指數股票型基金(ETF)與指數股票型基金期貨生成變數(ETF Futures)之計量經濟研究
An Econometric Analysis of ETF and ETF Futures in Financial and Energy Markets Using Generated Regressors
指導教授: 馬可立
Michael McAleer
謝文萍
Wen-Ping Hsieh
口試委員: 張嘉玲
Chia-Lin Chang
索樂晴
Leh-Chyan So
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 統計學研究所
Institute of Statistics
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 56
中文關鍵詞: 指數股票型基金波動外溢金融與能源市場現貨與期貨價格生成變數對角化BEKK
外文關鍵詞: Exchange traded funds, co-volatility spillovers, financial and energy sectors, spot and futures prices, generated regressors, Diagonal BEKK
相關次數: 點閱:1下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 由歷史價格波動可以發掘金融和能源市場之間存在本質上的關係,其關係可以透過分析它們之間的溢出效果來檢驗,即在現貨與期貨市場,檢驗不同金融與能源資產的報酬震盪如何相互影響隨後的共波動率。衍生性金融商品,可以代表其標的資產的價格波動,也可以使原本無法買賣的標的資產在現貨和期貨兩個市場交易,包括指數股票型基金(ETF),這是一種可交易的現貨指數,其目的是複製一個潛在的標的指數報酬。當ETF期貨無法取得以檢驗其溢出效果時,可以利用生成變數來建構金融ETF期貨和能源ETF期貨。本文的目的是研究美國現貨與期貨市場內,金融部門與能源部門間與部門內的共同波動溢出效果,並利用生成變數和多變量波動率模型對角化BEKK。使用的資料為自1998年12月23日至2016年4月22日的日資料。資料分析之時間區隔除了整體時間樣本,也將時間切割為三個時間子樣本,即金融海嘯前、金融海嘯其間與金融海嘯後。實證結果發現在現貨和期貨市場的金融ETF和ETF能源之間有顯著的共波動溢出效果。因此,從風險管理的角度而言,金融和能源ETF適合構建一個金融投資組合,以達動態避險的目的。


    It is well known that that there is an intrinsic link between the financial and energy sectors, which can be analyzed through their spillover effects, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility in both spot and futures markets. Financial derivatives, which are not only highly representative of the underlying indices but can also be traded on both the spot and futures markets, include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which is a tradable spot index whose aim is to replicate the return of an underlying benchmark index. When ETF futures are not available to examine spillover effects, “generated regressors” may be used to construct both Financial ETF futures and Energy ETF futures. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the co-volatility spillovers within and across the US energy and financial sectors in both spot and futures markets, by using “generated regressors” and a multivariate conditional volatility model, namely Diagonal BEKK. The daily data used are from 1998/12/23 to 2016/4/22. The data set is analyzed in its entirety, and also subdivided into three subset time periods. The empirical results show there is a significant relationship between the Financial ETF and Energy ETF in the spot and futures markets. Therefore, financial and energy ETFs are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective, and also for dynamic hedging purposes.

    1. Introduction 1 2. Brief Literature Review 9 3. Methodology 12 3.1 Univariate Conditional Volatility Models 14 3.1.1 Random Coefficient Autoregressive Process and GARCH 14 3.2 Multivariate Conditional Volatility Models 16 3.3 Full and Partial Volatility and Co-volatility Spillovers 18 3.4 Diagonal and Scalar BEKK 19 3.5 Triangular, Hadamard and full BEKK 21 3.6 Generated Regressors 22 4. Data and Variables 27 5. Empirical Results for Co-volatility Spillovers 32 5.1 Hypothesis Testing of Co-volatility Spillovers 32 5.2 Calculating Average Co-volatility Spillovers 33 6. Concluding Remarks 43 Table 1: Data Description 45 Table 2: Descriptive Statistics (December 22, 1998 – April 22, 2016) 46 Table 3: Unit Root Tests 47 Table 4: Estimation of Diagonal Elements of A in BEKK 48 Table 4 (cont.): Estimation of Diagonal Elements of A in BEKK 49 Table 5: Mean Return Shocks 50 Table 5 (cont.): Mean Returns Shocks 51 Table 6: Mean Co-volatility Spillovers 52 Table 6 (cont.): Mean Co-volatility Spillovers 53 References 54

    Baba, Y., R.F. Engle, D. Kraft and K.F. Kroner (1985), Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH, Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.

    Baffes, J., M.A. Kose, F. Ohnsorge and M. Stocker (2015), The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, World Bank Report.

    Bollerslev, T. (1986), Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.

    Bollerslev, T. (1990), Modelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rate: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Approach, Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, 498-505.

    Bollerslev, T., R. Engle and J. Wooldridge (1988), A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time Varying Covariance, Journal of Political Economy, 96, 116-131.

    Chang, C.-L. (2015), Modelling a Latent Daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index, International Review of Economics & Finance, 40(C), 113-126.

    Chang, C-L., T-L. Hsieh and M. McAleer (2016), How are VIX and Stock Index ETF Related?, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 16-010/III, Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

    Chang C.-L. and Y.-P. Ke (2014), Testing Price Pressure, Information, Feedback Trading, and Smoothing Effects for Energy Exchange Traded Funds, Annals of Financial Economics, 9(2), 1-26.

    Chang, C.-L., Y.-Y. Li and M. McAleer (2015), Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-077/III, Tinbergen Institute.

    Chang, C.-L., M. McAleer and Y.-A. Wang (2016), Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-014/III, Tinbergen Institute.

    Chen J.-H. and C.-Y. Huang (2010), An Analysis of the Spillover Effects of Exchange Traded Funds, Applied Economics, 42(9), 1155-1168.

    Engle, R.F. (1982), Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation, Econometrica, 50, 987-1007.

    Engle, R. (2002), Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Hereoskedasticity Models, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339-350.

    Engle, R.F. and K.F. Kroner (1995), Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH, Econometric Theory, 11(1), 122-150.

    Fiebig, D.G., M. McAleer and R. Bartels (1992), Properties of Ordinary Least Squares Estimators in Regression Models with Non-Spherical Disturbances, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 321-334.

    Jeantheau, T. (1998), Strong Consistency of Estimators for Multivariate ARCH Models, Econometric Theory, 14, 70-86.

    Ling, S. and M. McAleer (2003), Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model, Econometric Theory, 19, 278-308.

    McAleer, M. (1992), The Rao-Zyskind Condition, Kruskal’s Theorem and Ordinary Least Squares, Economic Record, 68, 65-72.

    McAleer, M. (2005), Automated Inference and Learning in Modeling Financial Volatility, Econometric Theory, 21(1), 232-261.

    McAleer, M. (2014), A One Line Derivation of EGARCH, Econometrics, 2, 92-97.

    McAleer, M., F. Chan, S. Hoti and O. Lieberman (2008), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Correlation, Econometric Theory, 24(6), 1554-1583.

    McAleer, M., S. Hoti and F. Chan (2009), Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Conditional Volatility, Econometric Reviews, 28, 422-440.

    McAleer. M., J.-A. Jimenez-Martin and T. Perez-Amaral (2013), Has the Basel Accord Improved Risk Management During the Global Financial Crisis?, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(C), 250-265.

    McAleer, M. and C.R. McKenzie (1991), When are Two-Step Estimators Efficient?, Econometric Reviews, 10, 235-252.

    McLannahan, B. and A. Gray (2016, January 15), Big US Banks Reveal Oil Price Damage, Financial Times.

    Olson, B., E. Glazer and M. Jarzemsky (2016, March 24), Coming to the Oil Patch: Bad Loans to Outnumber the Good, The Wall Street Journal.

    Smith, G. (2014, July 4), U.S. Seen as Biggest Oil Producer After Overtaking Saudi, Bloomberg.

    Tsay, R.S. (1987), Conditional Heteroscedastic Time Series Models, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 590-604.

    Tse, Y.K. and A.K.C. Tsui (2002), A Multivariate GARCH Model with Time-Varying Correlations, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 351-362.

    Van Vactor, S.A. (2009, January 1), Financial Crisis Impacts Energy Industry, Oil and Gas Financial Journal.

    無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校內網路)
    全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校外網路)
    全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (國家圖書館:臺灣博碩士論文系統)
    QR CODE