人口老化已成為全球關注之社會議題，全球出生率逐漸降低對經濟成長帶來甚麼影響？人口老化又是透過甚麼機制影響經濟成長？本文根據Prettner（2013）提出人口老化與半內生成長模型理論進行實證分析，分別探討全球人口老化對經濟成長之影響及致力於發展R&D的國家面臨人口老化現象時，對專利產出及經濟成長影響為何。本文採用1996年至2014年跨國實證資料，以兩階段系統性動差法（two step system GMM）進行實證研究。發現出生率下降對專利產出與經濟成長皆為負向影響，但可透過維持一定程度的勞動參與率或就業人口比例反轉人口老化對專利產出與經濟成長的負面影響。除此之外，專利產出的增加亦有利於減緩出生率下降對經濟成長帶來的負面衝擊。

Population aging is identified as one of the global social issue. What does effect to economic growth when the birth rate of the world is getting lower? What is the mechanism between population aging and economic growth? This research follows Prettner (2013) framework with population aging and semi-endogenous model to analyze the effect between population aging, innovation and economic growth. The analysis covers countries from 1996 to 2014 and is based on the estimation of growth equation using two step system GMM estimator. The empirical result is that birth rate significantly and positively impacts on the economic growth rate and the output of patents, but the high enough labor participation rate and employment ratio can reversal the negative impact between population aging and economic growth. Moreover, the increasing of patents can slow down the negative impact between population aging and economic growth rate as well.

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