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研究生: 胡婉琪
Wan-Chi Hu
論文名稱: TFT-LCD面板業之需求預測方法論
Demand Forecasting Methodology for TFT-LCD Panel Industry
指導教授: 林則孟
James T. Lin
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系
Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 140
中文關鍵詞: 一致性預測需求規劃TFT-LCD迴歸分析時間序列模式
外文關鍵詞: Consensus forecast, Demand planning, TFT-LCD, Regression analysis, Time series analysis
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  • 本研究以TFT-LCD面板製造商為實證研究對象,應用TFT-LCD產品階層結構的特性,輔以層級式預測理論,建立需求預測方法論,以期整合TFT-LCD市場需求量的預測與企業銷售預測,作為未來TFT-LCD面板廠需求規劃之參考。
    本研究提出之需求預測方法論共包含四個階段:首先針對整體產業市場需求進行評估,考量經濟發展與社會指標等外部驅動因素,建立迴歸預測模型;接著預測企業市場佔有率,用以衡量企業在市場的競爭力;再以適合產品眾多的時間序列模型推估企業銷售需求;最後藉由「組合預測」整合多維度預測、獲得較充分的資訊,產生準確度高的一致性預測(consensus forecast)結果。
    不同於過去文獻從流程方面來探討需求規劃協同議題,本研究考量理論與實務,參考不同資訊建立不同維度的預測模型,並藉由實際面板製造商的出貨資料進行驗證分析,結果顯示本研究所提之需求預測方法論,可得到準確度高的一致性預測結果,提供面板製造商一套有效的需求規劃方法之參考。


    目  錄 圖 目 錄 表 目 錄 第一章 緒論 1.1 研究背景與動機 1.2 研究目的 1.3 研究範圍與限制 1.4 研究流程 第二章 TFT-LCD面板業需求規劃問題分析與定義 2.1 TFT-LCD面板業之產品階層結構 2.1.1 產品應用層級 2.1.2 產品尺寸層級 2.1.3 產品解析度層級 2.1.4 產品機種層級 2.2 TFT-LCD面板業之需求規劃層級分析 2.2.1 TFT-LCD需求預測層級與產品層級之關聯 2.2.2 TFT-LCD面板業需求預測層級與生產鏈之關聯 2.3 問題定義 第三章 文獻回顧 3.1 需求管理與規劃 3.2 預測文獻整理 3.2.1 預測方法 3.2.2 產品生命週期與預測方法之選擇 3.3 層級式預測 3.4 組合預測方法 3.5 方法論比較 第四章 需求預測方法論 4.1 研究架構 4.2 長期整體市場需求預測 4.2.1 預測方法 4.2.2 聚合與解析 4.3 市場佔有率預測 4.4 企業銷售預測 4.4.1 預測變數 4.4.2 指數平滑法 4.4.3 移動平均法 4.5 一致性預測 4.5.1 市場總量的需求預測轉為個別企業的需求預測 4.5.2 組合預測機制 4.6 資料來源 第五章 TFT-LCD面板業需求預測方法案例驗證 5.1 長期總體市場需求預測 5.1.1 大尺寸面板市場第一階層需求預測 5.1.1.1 預測變數說明 5.1.1.2 外部驅動因素分析 5.1.1.3 預測模型建立 5.1.1.4 第一階層預測結果與說明 5.1.2 大尺寸面板市場第二階層需求預測 5.1.2.1 預測變數說明 5.1.2.2 外部驅動因素分析 5.1.2.3 預測模型建立 5.1.2.4 第二階層預測結果與說明 5.1.3 大尺寸面板市場第三階層需求預測 5.1.3.1 預測變數說明 5.1.3.2 外部驅動因素分析 5.1.3.3 預測模型建立 5.1.3.4 第三階層預測結果與說明 5.1.4 市場需求預測結果比較 5.2 企業市場佔有率預測 5.2.1 預測變數說明 5.2.2 預測模型建立 5.3 TFT-LCD面板廠銷售預測 5.3.1 預測變數說明 5.3.2 預測模型建立 5.3.3 預測結果與說明 5.4 一致性預測 5.4.1 組合預測模式建立 5.4.2 一致性預測結果 第六章 結論與建議 6.1 結論 6.2 建議 參考文獻 附錄一:各尺寸液晶監視器產品預測模型 附錄二:各尺寸筆記型電腦產品預測模型 附錄三:各尺寸液晶電視產品預測模型

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