少子化浪潮衝擊臺灣高等教育，學生總數自 2012 年的高峰 136 萬下跌至 2020 年的 120 萬，生源減少影響各校招生，而持續攀升的休退學率對於教育資源是否有效配置更引起政府和高等教育機構的高度重視。本研究利用 2013 年至 2017 年國立清華大學校務資料之新生問卷，分析學生來源如入學管道、高中成績、家庭背景等，進一步探討對其休退學行為的關聯性，盼透過實證角度，從招生策略層面提供選才建議，改善大學生的休退學率。
本研究使用普通最小平方法 (Ordinary Least Squares, OLS) 以及其他非線性迴歸模型從事實證研究，我們的結果顯示，考試分發的學生相對申請及推薦入學的學生，較容易選擇休退學；男性也較女性容易休退學；高中成績優異者比較不容易休退學，但是否來自明星高中則不顯著。此外，家庭背景因素，例如父母親學歷、職業、年收入等，對休退學的影響在統計上大多不顯著。
本研究認為考試分發入學的學生，因非主動爭取進入所屬學系，較容易放棄學業，而申請生及繁星生在入學過程中已歷經學系探索，就學穩定度較高，此結果也能佐證現行大學多元入學的方向正確，各校持續增加申請名額是符合資源有效分配的做法；而是否來自明星高中對於是否休退學未見其關聯，但高中班上排名卻有顯著關係，應可解釋為十二年國教帶來的影響，高中日漸走向均質化，無論是否來自明星高中，只要學生高中三年的學習表現優秀，其學習成果都能延續至大學階段。

The wave of declining birthrate has hit Taiwan higher education, and the total number of students has fallen from 1.36 million in 2012 to 1.2 million in 2020. The reduction of student numbers has impacted the college recruitment, and the rising of dropout rate has also brought the issue on allocation of educational resources. With the use of the questionnaires of the freshman of National Tsing Hua University from 2013 to 2017, this research analyzes the connections between students’ dropout behaviors and their backgrounds such as admissions channels, high school grades, family background, etc., to further examine the students’ dropout behaviors. This research aims to provide advice on recruiting strategies of admissions, and reducing the dropout rate of college students.
This paper uses the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and other non-linear regression models to conduct the empirical applications. Our empirical results show that the students admitted by exam-based method are more likely to dropout than the students by application-based method; men are also easier to dropout than women; the students with excellent grades in high school are less likely to dropout, yet there is not a significant connection between the dropout rate and if the student is from a prestigious high school. In addition, family background, such as parents’ education, parents’ occupation, annual income of the family etc., tends to be less significant according to our results.
Thus, this paper regards the students admitted by exam-based are more likely to give up their studies because they do not actively strive to enter their departments. The students by application-based have already explored their interests during the admission process and have a higher retention rate. This result also could prove that the current direction of multi-admission program is correct, those universities continue to increase the number of applications is the way to allocate resources efficiently.
In addition, this paper revealed that the students’ high school performance is more predictive than whether they come from a prestigious high school, which should be explained as the influence of the 12-year basic education, and high schools are gradually becoming homogenized. As long as the students with excellent grades in high school, they could usually still have excellent performance in university.

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