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研究生: 陶莉絲
Doris Alicia Lara Espinal
論文名稱: Agricultural Risk Assesment In Honduras
宏都拉斯農業風險之評估與探討
指導教授: 陳淑玲
Chen, Shu-Ling
黃裕烈
Huang, Yu-Lieh
口試委員: 郭啟賢
Kuo, Chii-Shyan
張焯然
Chang, Jow-Ran
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 國際專業管理碩士班
International Master of Business Administration(IMBA)
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 102
中文關鍵詞: HondurasRisk Assesment
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  • The following thesis aims to assess the weather risks that affect the growing of the basic grains in Honduras in order to finally propose an index insurance contract that would help small income farmers improve their quality of life by bringing them more opportunities, like access to credit. Following a thorough literature review that describes Honduras’s basic economic and social data, agricultural sector of the country, natural disaster effects, and the overall problematic surrounding the topic; weather index insurance is described and many examples of its application in different countries are given in order to find a structure suitable for the case of Honduras. To determine what risks affect the production for each agricultural cycle, region, and basic grain in Honduras; a correlation analysis was done with the production and rainfall data available. Also, the rainfall time series for each region of the country was analyzed to understand its behavior and to aid in the construction of the proposed contracts. Finally, the results and conclusions are presented; where problems with the data availability limited the statistical significance of the risk assessment but nonetheless open the door for many future studies related to this topic.


    Index List of Tables 5 List of Figures 7 CHAPTER 1: Introduction 8 1.1 Background and Motivation 8 1.2 Research Question 10 1.3 Contribution 11 1.4 Thesis Layout 12 CHAPTER 2: Agricultural Risk in Honduras 13 2.1 Honduras’s Agricultural Sector 13 2.2 Natural Disasters Effects in Honduras’s Agriculture 16 2.3 Government Assistance to Farmers 24 CHAPTER 3: Weather Index Insurance 30 3.1 Weather Index Insurance in Mexico 34 3.2 Weather Index Insurance in India 36 3.3 Weather Index Insurance in United States 38 3.4 Other Weather Index Insurance Country-Application Examples 40 3.5 Weather Index Insurance using ENSO Data 48 CHAPTER 4: Methodology 50 4.1 Data Availability 50 4.2 Correlation Analysis 63 4.3 Time Series Analysis 67 CHAPTER 5: Results and Conclusions 74 5.1 Results 74 5.2 Conclusions 87 Bibliography 89 Appendix 94 Appendix 1: Honduras’s Production Data for Corn by Year, Cycle, and Region (Quintals) 95 Appendix 2: Honduras’s Production Data for Beans by Year, Cycle, and Region (Quintals) 97 Appendix 3: Honduras’s Production Data for Rice by Year, Cycle, and Region (Quintals) 99 Appendix 4: Honduras’s Production Data for Sorghum by Year, Cycle, and Region (Quintals) 101

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