本研究基於混沌理論的觀點與特性，探討產業與技術改變之演化行為是否具有混沌現象。在變數操作與衡量上，本研究以產業的技術產出，即為專利權申請數目，做為產業與技術改變之代理指標，搭配李雅普諾夫指數做為產業時間序列的衡量係數，並佐以全球軟體產業、半導體產業與生物科技產業為例，探討說明混沌現象對產業與技術改變的啟示。本研究的實證結果顯示，產業與技術改變遵從回饋循環、內生變化、路徑依賴與制度角色的概念性隱喻，特別在關鍵創新行動引發系統產生內生變化後，該系統所表現之混沌現象更為顯著。本文最後並討論理論與實務意涵，並延伸說明處於該產業中廠商應採取的技術策略。

In this paper, we apply chaos theory to study the nonlinear nature of industrial and technological change. Methodologically, we focus on the analyses of three industries - software, semiconductor and biotechnology - with the use of Lyapunov exponent as an indicator to the measurement of chaos. Results show that the three industries were developed to promote the conditions of feedback loops, endogenous change, path dependence and role of institutions, all centered on the edge of chaos. This kind of observation is particularly applied to industry growth following a gale of creative destruction. Implications for theory, research and practicing managers are drawn out.

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