為了推估物種絕種可能發生的時間，本論文的研究主題主要是探討五種不同的估計之特性。(1)有母數方法：均勻最小變異數不偏估計量(UMVUE)以及Beg於1982年提出在樣本為截斷指數分布情況下，得到最小變異數不偏估計量(MVUE)。(2)無母數方法：在大樣本時，使用線性估計量的最小均方差(MSE)求出最佳線性估計量(optimal linear estimation)，(Cooke，1996)；最後為Robson和Whitlock在1964年將一階摺刀法與二階摺刀法應用在估計截斷點(truncated point)上的估計量。

由上述五種估計方法作模擬分析，分別探究瀕臨絕種或已滅絕物種絕種時間，以其假設觀察到的年份為截斷均勻分布(truncated uniform distribution)、截斷指數分布(truncated exponential distribution)、截斷伽瑪分布(truncated gamma distribution)、截斷韋伯分布(truncated Weibull distribution)和截斷對數常態分布(truncated log-normal distribution)等五種不同的分布來生成樣本，分析比較五種方法的物種絕種時間平均值、樣本標準差、拔靴法標準差(bootstrap standard error)、均方根誤差(RMSE)、型一錯誤率(type I error rate)，以及檢定拒絕虛無假說的比例為何。除此之外，利用無母數最佳線性估計量探討距離真正的絕種時間點最接近的k個觀察年份來做最佳線性估計量的模擬研究，找出不同分布下各種適當的k值。最後以三種真實的例子：加勒比僧海豹(caribbean monk seal)、多多鳥(dodo bird)和黑腳雪貂(black-footed ferret)做進一步的資料分析，計算出不同估計方法下的估計量與其信賴區間的上界、拔靴法標準差，並加以檢定在今年(2008)這三種物種是否已絕種，以此來比較五種估計方法之表現差異。

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