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研究生: 林威辰
Lin, Wei-Chen
論文名稱: 台美關係與台灣民眾統獨立場的實證研究
Empirical Research on Taiwan-US Relations and the Stances of Taiwanese People on Unification or Independence
指導教授: 李宜
Lee, Yi
口試委員: 林靜儀
Lin, Ching-Yi
李浩仲
Li, Hao-Chung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 公共政策與管理
Master Program of Public Policy and Management
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 30
中文關鍵詞: 台灣美國中國台美外交關係台美軍事合作統獨立場川普政府
外文關鍵詞: Taiwan, United States, China, Taiwan-US diplomatic relations, Taiwan-US military cooperation, unification-independence stance, Trump administration
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  • 台灣與美國自第二次世界大戰以來的外交關係經歷數個時期。起初,美國支持蔣中正政府並與台灣保持緊密的外交及軍事合作。然而,1970年代,美國與中國建立外交關係,與台灣斷交。儘管如此,美國仍通過《台灣關係法》繼續與台灣保持非正式合作。自1980年代起,台灣經歷政治改革,美國對台灣的態度有所改變。在經濟、高科技產業、教育等領域,台美關係進一步加深。
    自2000年代以來,台美在軍事合作和安全支持方面加強。特別是在2016年,川普政府接受蔡英文總統的祝賀電話,這是自1979年斷交以來首次由台美最高領導人直接溝通。川普政府期間對台軍售頻繁且售台武器性能和質量超越過去限制。此外,川普政府對中台關係的外交及軍事布局有劇變,一方面升級對台外交關係,另一方面對中國發動貿易戰,以抵抗中國對美國全球地位的挑戰。這使人們思考川普政府的激進抵中策略是否影響了台灣民眾的統獨立場。
    研究結果顯示,台美外交關係認知和美國對台軍事合作認知對台灣民眾的統獨立場具有顯著影響。在不同認知組合下,民眾對台灣獨立或統一的支持程度呈現差異。本研究的成果有助於提供更全面和具體的分析,讓我們更好地理解台灣民眾在統獨立場上的多樣性。透過進一步研究其他可能影響台灣民眾統獨立場的因素,學者們可以為政策制定提供更多實證依據和建議。


    Taiwan and the United States have experienced several phases in their diplomatic relations since World War II. Initially, the United States supported the Chiang Kai-shek government and maintained close diplomatic and military cooperation with Taiwan. However, in the 1970s, the United States established diplomatic relations with China and severed ties with Taiwan. Despite this, the United States continued to maintain informal cooperation with Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act. Since the 1980s, Taiwan has undergone political reforms, and the United States' attitude towards Taiwan has changed. The Taiwan-US relationship has deepened further in areas such as economy, high-tech industries, and education.

    Since the 2000s, Taiwan and the US have strengthened military cooperation and security support. Particularly in 2016, the Trump administration accepted a congratulatory phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, marking the first direct communication between the top leaders of Taiwan and the US since the severing of ties in 1979. During the Trump administration, arms sales to Taiwan were frequent, and the performance and quality of the weapons sold exceeded past limitations. Furthermore, the Trump administration significantly changed its diplomatic and military strategy towards cross-strait relations, upgrading diplomatic relations with Taiwan on one hand and launching a trade war against China on the other, in order to counter China's challenge to the US global position. This raises the question of whether the Trump administration's aggressive strategy against China has affected the stance of the people of Taiwan on unification or independence.

    Research results show that the perception of Taiwan-US diplomatic relations and US military support to Taiwan has a significant impact on the unification-independence stance of the people of Taiwan. Under different perception combinations, the level of support for Taiwan's independence or unification varies among the people. The findings of this study help provide a more comprehensive and concrete analysis, enabling us to better understand the diversity of the Taiwanese people's stance on unification and independence. By further studying other factors that may influence the people of Taiwan's stance on unification or independence, scholars can provide more empirical evidence and suggestions for policy-making.

    目錄 論文摘要.........................I Abstract........................II 致謝.............................IV 目錄.............................V 第壹章 緒論.....................1 第貳章 台美關係回顧..............4 第參章 資料、變數與模型設定......10 第一節 統獨意識與認同.............10 第二節 資料來源與變數說明..........13 第三節 實證模型設定................18 第肆章 實證分析與討論.............20 第伍章 結論與政策建議.............28 參考文獻...........................30

    1. 方淇•吳崇禮 (2021): “社會距離與兩岸關係認知:臺灣民眾統獨立場的實證分析,” 《選舉研究》, 28(1) , 103-148。
    2. 裘兆琳•陳蒿堯 (2013): “一九七九年以來美臺關係之演變,” 《問題與研究》, 52(2) , 1-50。
    3. 胡聲平 (2008): “民進黨政府國內政治考量與操作下的台美關係,” 《全球政治評論》, (22) , 81-106。
    4. 蕭衡鍾 (2022): “台灣在美中戰略競爭下的地緣角色與策略選擇,” 《台灣國際研究期刊》, 18(1) , 107-129。
    5. 謝志淵•溫培基 (2022): “當前美、日關係下的「臺海問題」研究,” 《海軍學術雙月刊》, 56(3) , 21-35。
    6. 孫国祥 (2021): “米国のインド太平洋戦略と米台関係の変遷及び展望,” 《問題と研究》, 50(1) , 29-84。
    7. 康育菱 (2021): “臺灣民眾對美國安全承諾的信任變遷研究~2018-2020三波調查的分析,” 國立臺灣大學社會科學院國家發展研究所碩士論文。

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