研究生: |
薩 特 Aruma Thanthrige Sasitha Hansaka Lakmal |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
主權債務協商與抵押品價值:以斯里蘭卡為例 Leveraging Collateral Value Dynamics in Sovereign Debt Management - The renegotiation of Sri Lankan Debt |
指導教授: |
李文傑
Lee, Wen-Chieh |
口試委員: |
陳添枝
Chen, Tain-Jy 王信實 Wang, Shinn-Shyr |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
台北政經學院 - 台北政經學院政治經濟 Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Master’s Program in Political Economy |
論文出版年: | 2024 |
畢業學年度: | 112 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 65 |
中文關鍵詞: | 債務重新談判 、抵押品 、博弈論 、戰略重要性 、貿易戰 |
外文關鍵詞: | Debt Renegotiation, Collaterral, Game theory, Strategic Importance, Trade War |
相關次數: | 點閱:34 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
斯里蘭卡面臨嚴重的債務危機,需要立即採取行動以確保永續性。其獨特的地理置使其具有重要的戰略意義。在當前地緣政治變化和持續的貿易戰中,斯里蘭卡有潛力透過適當的討價還價策略有效地利用其地位。本研究採用博弈論模型來分析斯里蘭卡的情景,結果表明,鑑於目前的金融帳流入水平,斯里蘭卡與美國、印度和日本等國家結盟更為有利。該模型還表明,斯里蘭卡可以與競爭對手談判以獲得額外的財政支持,同時發展基礎設施以進一步增強其戰略重要性。
Sri Lanka faces a severe debt crisis that requires immediate action to ensure sustainability. Its unique geographical location grants it significant strategic importance. Amid current geopolitical shifts and the ongoing Trade war, Sri Lanka has the potential to leverage its position effectively with the proper bargaining strategies. This study employs a game theory model to analyze Sri Lanka's Scenario, revealing that, given the current level of financial account inflows, it is more advantageous for Sri Lanka to align with countries such as the United States, India, and Japan. The model also demonstrates that Sri Lanka can negotiate with competing parties to secure additional financial support while developing infrastructure to enhance its strategic importance further.
Abeysinghe, Tilak. "Debt begets debt: The Sri Lankan welfare state and fiscal sustainability." Asian Economic Journal 35, no. 4 (2021): 363-389.
Almeida, Victor, Carlos Esquivel, Timothy Jerome Kehoe, and Juan Pablo Nicolini. Default and interest rate shocks: Renegotiation matters. No. 2024-05. Working Paper, 2024.
Amador, Manuel. "A political model sovereign debt repayment." In 2004 Meeting Papers, no. 762. Society for Economic Dynamics, 2004.
Bagadeem¹, Salim Aljawid, and Moid U. Ahmad. "Sovereign debt and defaults: A global study." (2020).
Benjamin, David, and Mark LJ Wright. "Deconstructing delays in sovereign debt restructuring." Oxford Economic Papers 71, no. 2 (2019): 382-404.
Bester, Helmut. "The role of collateral in a model of debt renegotiation." Journal of money, credit and banking 26, no. 1 (1994): 72-86.
Bulow, Jeremy, and Kenneth Rogoff. "A constant recontracting model of sovereign debt." Journal of political Economy 97, no. 1 (1989): 155-178.
Bulow, Jeremy, and Kenneth Rogoff. "Multilateral negotiations for rescheduling developing country debt: a bargaining-theoretic framework." Staff Papers 35, no. 4 (1988): 644-657.
Caliendo, Lorenzo, and Fernando Parro. "Lessons from US–China trade relations." Annual Review of Economics 15, no. 1 (2023): 513-547.
Chang, David W. "US aid and economic progress in Taiwan." Asian Survey (1965): 152-160.
Cruces, Juan J., and Christoph Trebesch. "Sovereign defaults: The price of haircuts." American economic Journal: macroeconomics 5, no. 3 (2013): 85-117.
Davis, Morton D.,” Game Theory, A Nontechnical Introduction” (New York: Dover Publications, 1997).
Dvorkin, Maximiliano, Juan M. Sánchez, Horacio Sapriza, and Emircan Yurdagul. "Sovereign debt restructurings." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13, no. 2 (2021): 26-77.
Eaton, Jonathan, and Mark Gersovitz. "Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis." The Review of Economic Studies 48, no. 2 (1981): 289-309.
Elard, Ilaf. "Three-player sovereign debt negotiations." International Economics 164 (2020): 217-240.
Epstein, Susan B., and K. Alan Kronstadt. Pakistan: US foreign assistance. No. R41856. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2011.
Fernandez, Raquel, and Robert W. Rosenthal. "Strategic models of sovereign-debt renegotiations." The Review of Economic Studies 57, no. 3 (1990): 331-349.
George, AS Hovan, A. Shaji George, and T. Baskar. "Sri Lanka's economic crisis: A brief overview." Partners Universal International Research Journal 1, no. 2 (2022): 9-19.
Greenhill, Romilly, Annalisa Prizzon, and Andrew Rogerson. "The age of choice: how are developing countries managing the new aid landscape?--Research reports and studies." (2013).
Haldane, Andrew G., Adrian Penalver, Victoria Saporta, and Hyun Song Shin. "Analytics of sovereign debt restructuring." Journal of International Economics 65, no. 2 (2005): 315-333.
Jonasson, Thordur, and Mr Michael G. Papaioannou. A primer on managing sovereign debt-portfolio risks. International Monetary Fund, 2018.
Joudeh Safa – Assembling the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone- the Networks, Spatial Strategies and Development impact of China’s relocating Manufacturing Industries in Egypt- 2023
Kandaudahewa, Hasith. "Sri Lanka's Strategic Dilemma: Navigating Great-Power Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific." Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs 6, no. 6 (2023).
Kletzer, Kenneth M., and Brian D. Wright. "Sovereign debt as intertemporal barter." American economic review 90, no. 3 (2000): 621-639.
Mazarr, Michael J., Yvonne K. Crane, and Bryan Frederick. "Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition." (2022).
Megliani, Mauro. "Sovereign debt." Genesis–Restucturing–Litigation (2015).
Merlo, Antonio, and Charles Wilson. "A stochastic model of sequential bargaining with complete information." Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society (1995): 371-399.
Nagy, S. “Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific: Defending a global public good”.
Oxford Economic Papers. (2022).
Pitchford, Rohan, and Mark LJ Wright. "Holdouts in sovereign debt restructuring: A theory of negotiation in a weak contractual environment." The Review of Economic Studies79, no. 2 (2012): 812-837.
Pitchford, Rohan, and Mark LJ Wright. "On the contribution of game theory to the study of sovereign debt and default." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 29, no. 4 (2013): 649-667.
Reinhart, Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano. "Debt intolerance." (2003).
Roxburgh, Charles, Susan Lund, and John Piotrowski. "Mapping global capital markets 2011." McKinsey Global Institute 201, no. 1 (2011): 1-38.
Sambalaibat, Batchimeg. "Credit default swaps as sovereign debt collateral." Available at SSRN 1825526 (2019).
Schreger, Jesse. "The costs of sovereign default: Evidence from Argentina." In 2015 Meeting Papers, no. 240. Society for Economic Dynamics, 2015.
Schumacher, Julian, Christoph Trebesch, and Henrik Enderlein. "Sovereign defaults in court." Journal of International Economics 131 (2021): 103388.
Weinschelbaum, Federico, and Jose Wynne. "Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets." Journal of International Economics 67, no. 1 (2005): 47-72.
Westphalen, Jürgen. "Origin and consequences of the debt crisis and ways of solving it." Intereconomics 19, no. 2 (1984): 71-77.
Winkler, M. “Foreign Bonds: An Autopsy”, Philadelphia, Roland Swain Co.(1993)
Yue, Vivian Z. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation." Journal of international Economics 80, no. 2 (2010): 176-187.
Zhang D., Lei L., Q. Ji, Kutan A.M., Economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. and China and their impact on the global markets. Economic Modelling, 79, 47–56 (2019)