匯率對雙邊貿易的影響一直是備受爭議的研究議題，不論在理論或實證上，都沒有一致的結論。本文利用引力模型來驗證2002-2016年期間，美國與175國貿易夥伴雙邊貿易活動的影響，並且在模型中同時加入匯率與油價波動作為解釋變數。另由於全球金融危機在2008年9月開始失控，進而造成全球經濟衰退，文中亦驗證了金融危機前後雙邊貿易活動是否有所差異。我們使用的數據主要取得於美國人口普查局、世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織與美聯儲經濟數據。實證結果發現，美國與貿易夥伴之間的雙邊貿易主要受到外國經濟規模與市場規模、匯率與匯率制度的影響。

The effect of exchange rates on international trades, has been controversial in the literature. This paper investigates how exchange rate and volatility of oil prices impact bilateral trade between United State and 175 trading partners from 2002 to 2016. While the trade dramatically collapsed after global financial crisis in 2008, we also examine the effects of exchange rate and oil price uncertainty on trade during pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Data of 175 countries between 2002 and 2016 is obtained from U.S. Census Bureau, Word Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). The estimated results reveal that economic size and market size of foreign partners, exchange rate and exchange rate regime have significant effects on bilateral trade between America and these 175 countries.

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