本文的目的在探討國際油價波動對台灣的貿易條件、貿易餘額、以及消費與GDP等主要總體變數的影響，並且考慮了央行的貨幣政策在油價的衝擊傳導過程中所扮演的角色。我們利用一個混頻的貝氏向量自迴歸模型進行實證分析，主要的發現如下：(1)國際油價上升可能造成台灣的貿易條件惡化以及貿易餘額GDP的比重減少；(2)國際油價上升可能造成央行的貼現率上升；(3)國際油價上升可能造成CPI的通膨率上升；(4)國際油價上升可能造成消費與GDP的成長率上升；(5)國際油價上升可能造成台灣的實質有效匯率升值；(6)央行的貨幣政策可能抵銷油價對貿易條件及貿易餘額的部份衝擊。

The purpose of this article is to discuss impact of international oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic variables for Taiwan, such as term of trade, trade balance, consumption and GDP. Also, we consider the role of monetary policies implemented by central bank in the transmission process when oil prices shock. We use a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR for analysis, and find the following features. (1) A rise of international oil prices may deteriorate terms of trade of Taiwan, decrease the trade balance-to-GDP ratio, lead to an increase in discount rate adjusted by central bank, result in an acceleration in the inflation of CPI, cause the growth rates of consumption and GDP to gain, contribute to an appreciation of the real effective exchange rates for Taiwan. Besides, we notice that monetary policies may offset part of the impact of oil price fluctuations on terms of trade and trade balance.

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