在面對日趨嚴重的氣候暖化下，中國為了兼顧經濟活動與碳排放減量的發展，積極的在許多地區試點推展碳排放權交易，因此，本研究將利用衰減因子與懲罰因子的設定，建構具儲存與借用設計的排放交易模型，對中國30個省市進行碳排放交易模擬，來探討在不同彈性機制市場下，各省市減量成本與交易價格的變化。此外，我們亦藉由逐次合併各單一交易市場成全國交易市場的過程中，來觀察碳交易市場整合程度對碳減量成本的影響，結果顯示排放權儲存或借用機制有明顯穩定市場價格與降低減排成本的效果，平均碳減排成本可因市場逐步整合而降低，減幅最高甚至可達64.3%。

With the growing concerns of global warming, China has developed carbon emission trading to balance the development of economic growth and carbon emission reductions in several provinces and cities. This study used the setting of decay factor and penalty factor to construct an emission trading model with banking and borrowing designs for analyzing possible emissions abatement costs and market price changes under different flexible trading mechanisms in 30 Chinese provinces and cities. In addition, we also explore how the carbon reduction activities would change when the current local trading markets gradually merge into a national market. The result shows that the emission banking or borrowing design has significant effects of stabilizing market prices and reducing the carbon abatement costs. Furthermore, the average carbon abatement cost can be reduced by as high as 64.3% when more trading markets are integrated.

一、中文書籍
王波、王慧、王冀、王長科、王東阡、王艷姣…戴君虎 (2020)。中國氣候變化藍皮書2020。北京:中國氣象局氣候變化中心。

二、中文期刊
方愷、張琦峰、杜立民 (2021)。初始排放權分配對各省區碳交易策略及其減排成本的影響分析。環境科學學報41 (2)，696-709。

沈洪濤與黃楠 (2019)。碳排放權交易機制能提高企業價值嗎。財貿經濟40 (1)，144-161。

劉宇、溫丹輝、王毅、孫振清 (2016)。天津碳交易試點的經濟環境影響評估研究—基於中國多區域一般均衡模型TermCO2 。氣候變化研究進展12 (6)，561-570。

三、英文書籍
Stern, N.(2006). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. UK: Cambridge University Press.

Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner G.K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Midgley, P. M. (2013). Climate change 2013: the physical science basis contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. UK: Cambridge University Press.

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四、英文期刊
Cronshaw, M., & Kruse, J. (1996). Regulated firms in pollution permit markets with banking. Journal of Regulatory Economics, 9, 179–186.

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Zheng, J., Yang, M., Ma, G., Xu, Q., &He, Y. (2020). Multi-agents-based modeling and simulation for carbon permits trading in China: A regional development perspective. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17.

五、學位論文
Chang, R. Y. (2020). Economic Analysis of a Global Permit Trading Market with Banking and Borrowing Designs for Greenhouse Gas Control. Ph.D dissertation, National Tsing Hua University.

六、討論報告
Burtraw, D., & Mansur, E. (1999). The effects of trading and banking in the SO2 allowance market (Discussion Paper 99-25). Retrieved from Resources for the Future website: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/10630

七、網路資料
中國國家統計局 (2018)。中國統計年鑒—2018。取自http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018/indexch.htm

China Emission Account & Datasets (2018). Emission Inventories for 30 Provinces 2017. Retrieved from https://www.ceads.net/data/province/

The World Bank (2018). Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29461