簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 李榮輝
論文名稱: 匯率制度與購買力平價迷思:歐元參與國的實證研究
Exchange Rate Regimes and PPP Puzzle : Evidence from Eleven Eurozone Countries
指導教授: 黃朝熙
口試委員: 黃裕烈
徐之強
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 42
中文關鍵詞: 匯率制度歐元參與國單根檢定AR模型VAR模型
相關次數: 點閱:2下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 因為在不同匯率制度下,名目匯率與相對價格可能在實質匯率的調整上扮演不同的角色,因此,探討匯率制度與購買力平價之間的關聯性是非常重要的。本文利用歐元參與國做為研究對象,樣本期間自1957年1月至2010年7月。為了避免實證結果受到計價單位的影響,本文將歐元參與國的資料轉換為成對樣本,以及為了避免橫斷面相依的問題對檢定的估計與推論產生誤差,所以本文採用已考量橫斷面相依的Pesaran (2007) Panel單根檢定方法,來探討在不同匯率制度下,購買力平價是否成立。
    由本文實證結果得知,在布列敦森林制度下的固定匯率制度,支持購買力平價的證據較薄弱,而在浮動匯率制、1979年3月至1991年12月歐洲匯率機制下的釘住浮動匯率制度、以及1992年至1998年因為貨幣危機而將匯率波動區間放寬至上下15%,皆拒絕實質匯率具有單根,隱含購買力平價成立,而在歐元上路後的單一貨幣制度下,購買力平價不成立。
    綜合實證結果,本文發現在固定匯率制度下,購買力平價不成立 (或者支持的證據較薄弱),而在浮動匯率制度下,購買力平價成立,因此,本文實證結果得到購買力平價是否成立會受到匯率制度的影響。


    目錄 第一章 研究動機…………………………………………………………………5 第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………………………8 第三章 研究方法…………………………………………………………………12 第一節 Panel 單根檢定………………………………………………13 第二節 Panel AR 模型…………………………………………………18 第三節 Panel VAR 模型………………………………………………20 第四章 實證結果分析……………………………………………………………22 第一節 資料的選取與來源……………………………………………22 第二節 實證結果………………………………………………………23 4.2.1 單根檢定 ………………………………………………23 4.2.2 Panel AR模型…………………………………………28 4.2.3 Panel VAR 模型………………………………………31 第五章 結論………………………………………………………………………32 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………33   圖目錄 圖一 AR(k)模型下實質匯率的衝擊反應………………………………………37 圖二 AR(k)模型下相對物價的衝擊反應………………………………………38 圖三 實質匯率與相對物價之間的衝擊反應……………………………………39 圖四 實質匯率與名目匯率之間的衝擊反應……………………………………39 圖五 相對物價與名目匯率受到q衝擊後的反應………………………………40 圖六 相對物價受到自身衝擊後的反應…………………………………………40 圖七 名目匯率受到自身衝擊後的反應…………………………………………41 圖八 實質匯率對相對物價變動的反應…………………………………………41 圖九 實質匯率對名目匯率變動的反應…………………………………………42 圖十 實質匯率的衝擊反應………………………………………………………42

    中文書目
    陳旭昇:<時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用>,《東華書局》,2010年修訂版,頁44-68。
    楊奕農:<時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用>,《雙葉書廊》,2009年第二版,頁235-260及頁388-392。
    李榮謙:<國際金融學>,《智勝文化》,2009年第四版,頁305-430。

    英文期刊
    Abuaf, N. and Jorion, P. (1990). "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run." The Journal of Finance , XLV, 157-173.

    Bissoondeeal, R. K. (2008). "Post-Bretton Woods Evidence on PPP under Different Exchange Rate Regimes." Applied Financial Economics , 18, 1481-1488.

    Chang, Y. (2002). "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency." 1-30.

    Cheung, Y.-W. and Lai K. S. (1998). "Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates during the Post-Bretton Woods Period." Journal of International Money and Finance , 17, 597-614.

    Cheung, Y.-W. and Lai, K. S. (2000). "On the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle." Journal of International Economics , 52, 321-330.

    Choi, I. (2001). "Unit Root Tests for Panel Data." Journal of International Money and Finance , 20, 249-272.

    Christidou, M. and Panagiotidis, T. (2010). "Purchasing Power Parity and the European Single Currency: Some New Evidence." Economic Modelling , 27, 1116-1123.

    Culver, S. E. and Papell, D. H. (1999). "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Short-Run Data: Evidence with a Null Hypothesis of Stationarity." Journal of International Money and Finance , 18, 751-768.

    Diebold, F. X., Husted S., and Rush M. (1991). "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard." Journal of Political Economy , 99, 1252-1271.

    Engel, C. (2000). "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All." Journal of International Economics , 57, 243-273.

    Engel, C. and Rogers, J. H. (2004). "European Product Market Integration after the Euro." Economic Policy, 347-384.

    Funke, K. and Koske, I. (2008). "Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? a Panel Analysis." International Advances in Economic Research , 14, 11-24.

    Gadea, M.D., Montan˜e´s, A., and Reyes M. (2004). "The European Union Currencies and the US Dollar: from Post-Bretton-Woods to the Euro." Journal of International Money and Finance , 23, 1109-1136.

    Koedijk, K. G., Schotman, P. C., and van Dijk, M. A. (1998). "The Re-Emergence of PPP in the 1990s." Journal of International Money and Finance , 17, 51-61.

    Koedijk, K. G., Tims, B., and van Dijk, M. A. (2004). "Purchasing Power Parity and the Euro Area." Journal of International Money and Finance , 23, 1081-1107.

    Koedijk, K. G., Tims, B., and van Dijk, M. A. (2010). "Why Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Should Allow for Heterogeneous Mean Reversion." Journal of International Money and Finance , xxx, 1-22.

    Levin, A., Lin, C. and Chu, C. (2002). "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:Asymptotic and Fintie-Sample Properties." Journal of Econometrics , 108, 1-24.

    Lopez, C. (2008). "Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity for the Floating Regime Period." Journal of International Money and Finance 27, 156-164.

    Lopez, C. and Papell, D. H. (2007). "Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity at the Commencement of the Euro." Review of International Economics , 15(1), 1-16.

    Lothian, J. R. and Taylor, M. P. (1996). "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries." The Journal of Political Economy , 104, 488-509.

    Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999). "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue , 631-652.

    Murray, C. J. and Papell, D. H. (2002). "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm." Journal of International Economics , 56, 1-19.

    Mussa, M. (1986). "Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates : Evidence and Implicatons." Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy , 25, 117-214.

    O'Connell, P. G. J. (1998). "The Overvaluation of Purchasing Power Parity." Journal of International Economics , 44, 1-19.

    OH, K.Y. (1996). "Purchasing Power Parity and Unit Root Tests Using Panel Data." Journal of lnternational Money and Finance ,15, 405-418.

    Papell, D. H. (1997). "Searching for Stationarity: Purchasing Power Parity under the Current Float." Journal of International Economics , 43, 313-332.

    Papell, D. H. (2006). "The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , 38, 447-467.

    Papell, D. H. and Theodoridis, H. (1998). "Increasing Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity over the Current Float." Journal of International Money and Finance , 17, 41-50.

    Papell, D. H. and Theodoridis, H. (2001). "The Choice of Numeraire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , 33, 790-803.

    Pesaran, M. H. (2004). "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section." Working Paper ,0435, 1-40.

    Pesaran, M. H. (2007). "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence." Journal Of Applied Econometrics , 22, 265-312.
    Pesaran, M. H., Smith, R. P., and Yamagata T. (2006). "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures." 1-16.

    Pesaran, M. H., Smith, R. P., and Yamagata T. (2009). "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity." Econometric Reviews , 28(6), 495-521.

    Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2002). "Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing under Cross Section Dependence." Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper , 1362, 1-56.

    Rogoff, K. (1996). "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle." Journal of Economic Literature 34, 647-668.

    Sarno, L. and Valente, G. (2006). "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity under Different Exchange Rate Regimes: Do They Revert and, If So, How?" Journal of Banking and Finance , 30, 3147-3169.

    Taylor, A. M. (2002). "A Century of Purchasing Power Parity." The Review of Economics and Statistics , 84(1), 139-150.

    Taylor, A. M. and Taylor, M. P. (2004). "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate." Journal of Economic Perspectives , 18, 135-158.

    Taylor, C. (2004). "An exchange-Rate Regime for the Euro." Journal of European Public Policy , 871-889.

    Taylor, M. P. and Sarno, L. (1998). "The Behavior of Real Exchange Rates during the Post-Bretton Woods Period." Journal of International Economics , 46, 281-312.

    Wu, Y.-H. and Lin, E. S. (2010). "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Following the Launch of the Euro? Evidence from the Panel Unit Root Test." Applied Economics Letters , 18:2, 167-172.

    無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校內網路)
    全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校外網路)

    QR CODE