研究生: |
李榮輝 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
匯率制度與購買力平價迷思:歐元參與國的實證研究 Exchange Rate Regimes and PPP Puzzle : Evidence from Eleven Eurozone Countries |
指導教授: | 黃朝熙 |
口試委員: |
黃裕烈
徐之強 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
論文出版年: | 2011 |
畢業學年度: | 99 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 42 |
中文關鍵詞: | 匯率制度 、歐元參與國 、單根檢定 、AR模型 、VAR模型 |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
因為在不同匯率制度下,名目匯率與相對價格可能在實質匯率的調整上扮演不同的角色,因此,探討匯率制度與購買力平價之間的關聯性是非常重要的。本文利用歐元參與國做為研究對象,樣本期間自1957年1月至2010年7月。為了避免實證結果受到計價單位的影響,本文將歐元參與國的資料轉換為成對樣本,以及為了避免橫斷面相依的問題對檢定的估計與推論產生誤差,所以本文採用已考量橫斷面相依的Pesaran (2007) Panel單根檢定方法,來探討在不同匯率制度下,購買力平價是否成立。
由本文實證結果得知,在布列敦森林制度下的固定匯率制度,支持購買力平價的證據較薄弱,而在浮動匯率制、1979年3月至1991年12月歐洲匯率機制下的釘住浮動匯率制度、以及1992年至1998年因為貨幣危機而將匯率波動區間放寬至上下15%,皆拒絕實質匯率具有單根,隱含購買力平價成立,而在歐元上路後的單一貨幣制度下,購買力平價不成立。
綜合實證結果,本文發現在固定匯率制度下,購買力平價不成立 (或者支持的證據較薄弱),而在浮動匯率制度下,購買力平價成立,因此,本文實證結果得到購買力平價是否成立會受到匯率制度的影響。
中文書目
陳旭昇:<時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用>,《東華書局》,2010年修訂版,頁44-68。
楊奕農:<時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用>,《雙葉書廊》,2009年第二版,頁235-260及頁388-392。
李榮謙:<國際金融學>,《智勝文化》,2009年第四版,頁305-430。
英文期刊
Abuaf, N. and Jorion, P. (1990). "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run." The Journal of Finance , XLV, 157-173.
Bissoondeeal, R. K. (2008). "Post-Bretton Woods Evidence on PPP under Different Exchange Rate Regimes." Applied Financial Economics , 18, 1481-1488.
Chang, Y. (2002). "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency." 1-30.
Cheung, Y.-W. and Lai K. S. (1998). "Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates during the Post-Bretton Woods Period." Journal of International Money and Finance , 17, 597-614.
Cheung, Y.-W. and Lai, K. S. (2000). "On the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle." Journal of International Economics , 52, 321-330.
Choi, I. (2001). "Unit Root Tests for Panel Data." Journal of International Money and Finance , 20, 249-272.
Christidou, M. and Panagiotidis, T. (2010). "Purchasing Power Parity and the European Single Currency: Some New Evidence." Economic Modelling , 27, 1116-1123.
Culver, S. E. and Papell, D. H. (1999). "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Short-Run Data: Evidence with a Null Hypothesis of Stationarity." Journal of International Money and Finance , 18, 751-768.
Diebold, F. X., Husted S., and Rush M. (1991). "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard." Journal of Political Economy , 99, 1252-1271.
Engel, C. (2000). "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All." Journal of International Economics , 57, 243-273.
Engel, C. and Rogers, J. H. (2004). "European Product Market Integration after the Euro." Economic Policy, 347-384.
Funke, K. and Koske, I. (2008). "Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? a Panel Analysis." International Advances in Economic Research , 14, 11-24.
Gadea, M.D., Montan˜e´s, A., and Reyes M. (2004). "The European Union Currencies and the US Dollar: from Post-Bretton-Woods to the Euro." Journal of International Money and Finance , 23, 1109-1136.
Koedijk, K. G., Schotman, P. C., and van Dijk, M. A. (1998). "The Re-Emergence of PPP in the 1990s." Journal of International Money and Finance , 17, 51-61.
Koedijk, K. G., Tims, B., and van Dijk, M. A. (2004). "Purchasing Power Parity and the Euro Area." Journal of International Money and Finance , 23, 1081-1107.
Koedijk, K. G., Tims, B., and van Dijk, M. A. (2010). "Why Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Should Allow for Heterogeneous Mean Reversion." Journal of International Money and Finance , xxx, 1-22.
Levin, A., Lin, C. and Chu, C. (2002). "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:Asymptotic and Fintie-Sample Properties." Journal of Econometrics , 108, 1-24.
Lopez, C. (2008). "Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity for the Floating Regime Period." Journal of International Money and Finance 27, 156-164.
Lopez, C. and Papell, D. H. (2007). "Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity at the Commencement of the Euro." Review of International Economics , 15(1), 1-16.
Lothian, J. R. and Taylor, M. P. (1996). "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries." The Journal of Political Economy , 104, 488-509.
Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999). "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue , 631-652.
Murray, C. J. and Papell, D. H. (2002). "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm." Journal of International Economics , 56, 1-19.
Mussa, M. (1986). "Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates : Evidence and Implicatons." Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy , 25, 117-214.
O'Connell, P. G. J. (1998). "The Overvaluation of Purchasing Power Parity." Journal of International Economics , 44, 1-19.
OH, K.Y. (1996). "Purchasing Power Parity and Unit Root Tests Using Panel Data." Journal of lnternational Money and Finance ,15, 405-418.
Papell, D. H. (1997). "Searching for Stationarity: Purchasing Power Parity under the Current Float." Journal of International Economics , 43, 313-332.
Papell, D. H. (2006). "The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , 38, 447-467.
Papell, D. H. and Theodoridis, H. (1998). "Increasing Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity over the Current Float." Journal of International Money and Finance , 17, 41-50.
Papell, D. H. and Theodoridis, H. (2001). "The Choice of Numeraire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , 33, 790-803.
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section." Working Paper ,0435, 1-40.
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence." Journal Of Applied Econometrics , 22, 265-312.
Pesaran, M. H., Smith, R. P., and Yamagata T. (2006). "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures." 1-16.
Pesaran, M. H., Smith, R. P., and Yamagata T. (2009). "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity." Econometric Reviews , 28(6), 495-521.
Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2002). "Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing under Cross Section Dependence." Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper , 1362, 1-56.
Rogoff, K. (1996). "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle." Journal of Economic Literature 34, 647-668.
Sarno, L. and Valente, G. (2006). "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity under Different Exchange Rate Regimes: Do They Revert and, If So, How?" Journal of Banking and Finance , 30, 3147-3169.
Taylor, A. M. (2002). "A Century of Purchasing Power Parity." The Review of Economics and Statistics , 84(1), 139-150.
Taylor, A. M. and Taylor, M. P. (2004). "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate." Journal of Economic Perspectives , 18, 135-158.
Taylor, C. (2004). "An exchange-Rate Regime for the Euro." Journal of European Public Policy , 871-889.
Taylor, M. P. and Sarno, L. (1998). "The Behavior of Real Exchange Rates during the Post-Bretton Woods Period." Journal of International Economics , 46, 281-312.
Wu, Y.-H. and Lin, E. S. (2010). "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Following the Launch of the Euro? Evidence from the Panel Unit Root Test." Applied Economics Letters , 18:2, 167-172.