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研究生: 奧太極
Otgontugs Osorjin
論文名稱: COVID-19危機後區域間外貿構成比較分析
Comparative analysis of the foreign trade composition after covid-19 pandemic crisis among the regions
指導教授: 邱婉茜
Chiu, Wan-Chien
口試委員: 林瑞嘉
Lin, Jui-Chia
潘虹華
Pan, Huang-Hua
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 國際專業管理碩士班
International Master of Business Administration(IMBA)
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: 50COVID-19大流行鎖定策略區域間外貿構成貿易差額貿易額
外文關鍵詞: comparative analysis, Covid-19 pandemic, lockdown policy, regional foreign trade composition, trade balance, trade volume
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  • 通過趨勢、共性和比較分析的結合,我們試圖研究鎖定對科維-19大流行的影響對非洲、亞洲和太平洋、拉丁美洲、歐洲、東地中海和北美等六個區域對外貿易平衡構成的更統一的影響。作為研究的結果,我們發現:(i) 儘管封鎖政策不同程度的嚴格性,但各地區的貿易額都出現了萎縮,對人民收入產生了負面影響; (ii) 有趣的是,當人們的收入在不確定的情況下減少時,每個地區都試圖限制他們的進口量,因此他們設法實現了積極的貿易平衡; (iii) 無論地區不同,經濟發展不同,貿易多樣化不同,封鎖策略不同,整個地區貨物進出口均出現突然波動性下降。就受「COVID-19」大流行所推動的單一區域而言,貿易量和貿易平衡對人民收入的相反影響可以抵消其負面影響。相比之下,通過全球貿易額的大幅下降,全球經濟的狀況更加糟糕。因此,應從穩定和可持續發展的角度進一步研究鎖定政策。


    Through the combination of trend, covariance and comparative analysis, we tried to look into more uniform impact of lockdown impact against covid-19 pandemic to the composition of foreign trade and trade balance among the six regions including Africa, Asia and Pacific, Latin America, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean and North America. As a result of the study, we found that (i) regardless of different level of strictness in lockdown policy, every region experienced shrinkage in their trade volume and it impacted negatively to their people’s income; (ii) interestingly, when people’s income reduced in uncertain condition, every region tried to limit their import volume, hence they managed to have the positive trade balance; and (iii) regardless of different region, different economic development, different trade diversification, and different lockdown strategy, all the region suffered sudden volatile drop in their both goods exports and imports uniformly.
    In terms of the single region under the lockdown driven by the covid-19 pandemic, the negative consequence could be neutralized by the opposite impact of trade volume and trade balance to people’s income. By contrast, through by huge decline in the global trade volume, the global economy is worse off severely. Therefore, the lockdown policy should be studied in further from the perspectives of stability and sustainability of economic development.

    Contents Abstract 2 1. Research introduction 4 1.1. Overview 4 1.2. Rationale 6 1.3. Purpose and significance 8 1.4. Data collection 8 1.5. Thesis organization 10 2. Literature review 11 2.1. Covid-19 pandemic impact channels 11 2.2. Economic impact 12 2.3. Financial impact 13 2.4. Social impact 15 3. Research methodology 17 4. Comparative analysis of the covid-19 pandemic impacts 19 4.1. Trend analysis in the composition of foreign trade 19 4.2. Covariance analysis between the foreign trade and income 23 4.2.1. African region 24 4.2.2. Asia Pacific region 26 4.2.3. European region 29 4.2.4. Latin American region 31 4.2.5. Eastern Mediterranean region 34 4.2.6. North American region 36 5. Discussion 39 6. Conclusion 41 7. References 43 8. Appendices 44

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