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研究生： 詹堯安
Yao-An Chan
論文名稱： 由系統動力學觀點探討多代擴散模型─以台灣行動電信產業為例
A System Dynamics View of Multi-generational Diffusion Model—A Case Study on Taiwan Mobile Telecom Industry
指導教授： 林福仁
Fu-Ren Lin
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 科技管理學院 - 科技管理研究所
Institute of Technology Management
論文出版年： 2007
畢業學年度： 95
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 114
中文關鍵詞： 系統動力學 、行動電信產業 、多代擴散 、3G 、WiMAX
外文關鍵詞： system dynamics, mobile telecom industry, multi-generational diffusion model, 3G, WiMAX
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    • To cross the chasm from early adopters to early majority is a significant issue in technology industries. The mobile telecom industry in Taiwan also faces the chasm, e.g., from 2G to 3G, and from 2G or 3G to WiMAX. This phenomenon drove us to question what key factors are to help new products cross the chasm. The aim of this research is to determine the key factors of user adoption and formulate a system dynamics model of the mobile telecom industry in Taiwan. We formulate a model by observing the case, the diffusion between 2G, 3G, and WiMAX in mobile telecom industry in Taiwan. After that, some scenarios of the diffusion in future are simulated. From the viewpoint of system dynamics, we can easily observe the structure of the industry and the results of some given scenarios for decisions and policies. Through simulating these scenarios, significant and sensitive factors that affect industry behaviors can be determined. The system dynamics model of the telecom industry in Taiwan can be used for projecting to the future new generation technology which also benefits decision makers. We propose that mobile telecom companies should improve the quality, invest in content and service industries, and launch WiMAX services as soon as possible. Mobile telecom companies should keep investing in enhancing customers’ satisfaction. The proposed model can be extended to get more precise forecasting in sales volume and profits in future research.

    To cross the chasm from early adopters to early majority is a significant issue in technology industries. The mobile telecom industry in Taiwan also faces the chasm, e.g., from 2G to 3G, and from 2G or 3G to WiMAX. This phenomenon drove us to question what key factors are to help new products cross the chasm. The aim of this research is to determine the key factors of user adoption and formulate a system dynamics model of the mobile telecom industry in Taiwan. We formulate a model by observing the case, the diffusion between 2G, 3G, and WiMAX in mobile telecom industry in Taiwan. After that, some scenarios of the diffusion in future are simulated. From the viewpoint of system dynamics, we can easily observe the structure of the industry and the results of some given scenarios for decisions and policies. Through simulating these scenarios, significant and sensitive factors that affect industry behaviors can be determined. The system dynamics model of the telecom industry in Taiwan can be used for projecting to the future new generation technology which also benefits decision makers. We propose that mobile telecom companies should improve the quality, invest in content and service industries, and launch WiMAX services as soon as possible. Mobile telecom companies should keep investing in enhancing customers’ satisfaction. The proposed model can be extended to get more precise forecasting in sales volume and profits in future research.

    CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION 1 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 3 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 4 1.4 SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING APPROACH 4 1.5 RESEARCH PROCEDURE 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1 DIFFUSION MODEL 7 2.1.1 Rogers Diffusion of Innovations 7 2.1.2 Bass Diffusion Model 7 2.1.3 Multi-generational Diffusion Model 8 2.2 SYSTEM DYNAMICS 12 2.2.1 The Modeling Process of System Dynamics 13 2.2.2 System Dynamics Modeling in Diffusion of Innovations 16 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHOD 20 3.1 MAPPING THE CASE TO MULTI-GENERATIONAL DIFFUSION AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS 20 3.2 THE MODELING PROCESS 21 CHAPTER 4 MODEL CONSTRUCTION 24 4.1 DIFFUSION DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND REMARKABLE VARIABLES 24 4.2 DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS IN CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS 28 4.3 FLOW DIAGRAMS AND EQUATIONS 34 4.4 MODEL TESTING 49 4.4.1 Dimensional Consistency Test 50 4.4.2 Pattern of Oscillation 50 CHAPTER 5 POLICY ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO SIMULATION 53 5.1 POLICY ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION 53 5.1.1 Price Policy and Quality Policy of 3G 53 5.1.2 Price Policy and Quality Policy of WiMAX 56 5.1.3 Launch time of WiMAX 59 5.2 SCENARIO SIMULATIONS AND INTERACTIVE EFFECTS TESTING 60 5.2.1 Comparison among Initial Run, Scenarios A~F 60 5.2.2 What If Change WiMAX Launch Time of Scenario D 60 5.2.3 What If Change Demand of Contents and Services 64 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH 73 REFERENCES 75 APPENDIX A 77 APPENDIX B 86 APPENDIX C 111

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