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研究生: 黃雅琪
論文名稱: 時間序列迴歸參數之穩健估計
指導教授: 周若珍
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 統計學研究所
Institute of Statistics
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 30
中文關鍵詞: 最小平方法完全修正最小平方法M估計完全修正M 估計
外文關鍵詞: OLS, FM-OLS, M-estimator, FM-M
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  • 摘要
    迴歸分析自18世紀發展至今日,已成為重要的數據分析工具,被廣泛用於各領域。在某些假設下高斯馬可夫定理證明,最小平方估計為迴歸參數之最佳估計。然而資料往往無法滿足這些假設,導致最小平方估計的代表性不足。多位學者致力研究迴歸參數之穩健估計,並且發展參數之完全修正估計。本文主要探討迴歸參數之最小平方估計、穩健的M估計,與它們的完全修正估計。文中分別討論四種估計量與其漸進分配。透過模擬實驗,本文驗證在許多情況下,完全修正法確實可以大幅提高參數估計之精準度。本文亦依據此建議完全修正最小平方法,和完全修正M估計法適合使用的時機。實證部份以名目利率和通貨膨脹率驗證台灣經濟並未出現「費雪效果」。


    目錄 第一章 序論 1 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 最小平方法與完全修正最小平方法 5 第二節 M估計與完全修正M估計 9 第三章 模擬實驗 12 •小樣本的模擬實驗結果分析………………………………….. 14 •大樣本的模擬實驗結果分析………………………………….. 15 第四章 實證分析 19 •費雪效果……………………………………………………….. 19 •台灣經濟費雪效果實證……………………………………….. 20 •利率自由化的影響…………………………………………….. 22 第五章 結論 26 參考文獻 28

    參考文獻

    中文文獻
    林煌清(1993),Fisher效果的台灣實證―共整合與誤差修正模型之應用,國立中興大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
    林坤慶(2002),費雪效果再檢定,國立中山大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
    吳聰敏(1995),台灣的名目利率與物價膨脹率:1907~1986年,經濟論文叢刊23:4。
    洪素杏(1992),Fisher利率中性假說之共整合檢定―台灣實證研究,國立中興大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
    夏曉雯(1993),利率費雪效應的實證研究,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。
    賴景昌(2002),總體經濟學第二版,雙葉書局。

    英文文獻
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    Park, J. and Phillips, P. C. B. (1988) “Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes” Part 1. Econometric Theory 4, 468-97.

    Phillips, P. C. B. and Park, J. (1988) “Asymptotic Equivalence of Ordinary Least Squares and Generalized Least Squares in Regressions with Integrated
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    Phillips, P. C. B. (1995a) “Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression.” Econometrica 63, 1023-79.

    Phillips, P. C. B. (1995b) “Robust Nonstationary Regerssion.” Econometric Theory 11, 912-51.

    Phillips, P. C. B. and Durlauf, S. N. (1986) “Multiple Time Series with IntegratedVariables.” Review of Economic Studies 53, 473-96.

    Phillips, P. C. B. and Hansen, B. E. (1990) “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variable Regression with I(1) Processes.” Review of Economic Studies 57,99-125.

    Shin, D. W. and Lee. O. (2002) “M-estimation for Regressions With Integrated Regressor and ARMA Error” Journal of Time Series Analysis 25, 284-299.

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