生命週期評估不確定性下建構與求解網路模型以最佳化產品設計供應鏈

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研究生：	李聖文
論文名稱：	生命週期評估不確定性下建構與求解網路模型以最佳化產品設計供應鏈 Network Formulation and Solution to Optimize Supply Chain for Product Designs Considering Life Cycle Assessment Uncertainty
指導教授：	蘇哲平
口試委員:	瞿志行洪一薰
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
論文出版年：	2012
畢業學年度：	100
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	73
中文關鍵詞：	生命週期評估不確定性、供應鏈最佳化、前K條最短路徑（KSP）、Yen’s algorithm
外文關鍵詞：	Life Cycle Assessment Uncertainty, Supply Chain Optimization, K-Shortest Paths（KSP）
相關次數：	點閱：4 下載：0
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生命週期評估近年來被廣泛地應用於產品開發領域，用以分析產品開發過程中對環境造成之影響。隨著環境保護意識興起，人們逐漸重視綠色產品概念。為了節省能源消耗與減少碳排放量之產生，各國政府紛紛訂立環保法規限制，用以督促企業於產品開發時對環境造成之衝擊。企業為了建立良好綠色形象，除了符合政府訂定之環保法規限制外，亦必須於供應鏈中挑選適當合作廠商。然而，各供應商之生產特性隨著製造程序不同，其發電類型與耗電量對環境衝擊之影響皆有所差異，亦即生命週期評估之不確定性。此外，當生命週期評估被用來做為決策支援工具時，評估之不確定性可能是造成錯誤決策之重要因素。因此，本研究主要探討生命週期評估之參數不確定性，使用統計方法將環境衝擊參數假設為三點估計值，同時建構供應鏈網路模型，將此問題視為前K條最短路徑（K-Shortest Paths, KSP）問題，不同路徑即為不同供應鏈決策，搭配Yen’s algorithm求解前K條較佳之供應鏈決策。最後提出三種挑選供應鏈決策方式，在得知環保法規限制下，用以分析當生命週期評估具有不確定性時，其評估結果與供應鏈決策方式之差異。

Life Cycle Assessment（LCA）has been widely used in the field of product development for the analysis of the impact on the environment in the product development process in recent years. With the rise of the awareness of environmental protection, people may pay more attention on the concept of green products. In order to save energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions, governments set up environmental restrictions to urge enterprises concern the impact on environment when they manufacturing products. Besides, to establish green images, enterprises not only have to satisfy the regulations set by governments, but choose appropriate suppliers in supply chain. However, with different manufacturing process and different production characteristics, the type of power generation and power consumption of suppliers on the environmental impact are different, that is, the uncertainties of life cycle assessment. In addition, when LCA is used for decision support or tool, the uncertainties of the evaluation can be an important factor to make the incorrect decisions. Therefore, this research focuses on the parameter uncertainty of life cycle assessment. Assume that parameters of environmental impact to three estimates by statistical methods and construct supply chain network model. Considering supply chain network model as the K-Shortest Paths（KSP）problem, which is solved by Yen’s algorithm. Different paths are the same as different supply chain decisions. Finally, knowing the environmental restrictions in advance, this research proposes three ways to make supply chain decisions, analyzing the differences between results of evaluation and ways to making supply chain decisions under the uncertainties of life cycle assessment.

摘要................................................................................................................................ i
英文摘要........................................................................................................................ ii
目錄.............................................................................................................................. iii
圖目錄............................................................................................................................ v
表目錄........................................................................................................................... vi
第一章 緒論............................................................................................................ 1
1研究背景與動機.............................................................................................. 1
2研究目的.......................................................................................................... 2
3研究架構.......................................................................................................... 3
第二章 文獻探討.................................................................................................... 5
1生命週期評估.................................................................................................. 5
2生命週期評估之不確定性.............................................................................. 8
3供應鏈最佳化................................................................................................ 10
4前K條最短路徑（K-Shortest Paths） ........................................................ 11
第三章 問題描述與說明 ..................................................................................... 13
1定義生命週期評估........................................................................................ 15
1.1生命週期評估不確定性..................................................................... 16
2建構供應鏈網路............................................................................................ 17
2.1零件材質與型號................................................................................. 17
2.2組裝架構與順序................................................................................. 18
2.3供應商資訊......................................................................................... 19
2.4供應鏈網路......................................................................................... 19
3求解前K條最短路徑（K-Shortest Paths） ................................................ 20
4計算符合環保法規限制之機率.................................................................... 21
4.1環保法規限制..................................................................................... 21
4.2要徑法................................................................................................. 22
5挑選供應鏈決策............................................................................................ 22
第四章 供應鏈網路模型建構與求解 ................................................................. 24
1供應鏈網路模型之建構................................................................................ 24
1.1縮小供應鏈網路................................................................................. 26
2節線係數與機率計算.................................................................................... 27
2.1節線係數計算..................................................................................... 27
2.2機率計算............................................................................................. 29
2.3範例說明............................................................................................. 29
3供應鏈網路模型之求解................................................................................ 35
3.1Yen’s algorithm .................................................................................... 35
iv
3.2 Yen’s algorithm之範例說明 .............................................................. 35
第五章 演算法實作範例 ..................................................................................... 39
1演算法實作環境............................................................................................ 39
2電腦椅簡介與資料........................................................................................ 39
3求解結果........................................................................................................ 43
3.1期望總和最小方式............................................................................. 44
3.2指定滿足機率方式............................................................................. 46
3.3指定求解時間方式............................................................................. 49
4決策方式比較................................................................................................ 52
5延伸討論........................................................................................................ 55
第六章 結論與未來研究 ..................................................................................... 59
1結論................................................................................................................ 59
2未來研究........................................................................................................ 61
參考文獻...................................................................................................................... 62
附錄.............................................................................................................................. 66
                                

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