以目標規劃建立最佳產業結構以達節能減碳與經濟發展政策之研究

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研究生：	楊恆軒 Yang, Heng-Hsun
論文名稱：	以目標規劃建立最佳產業結構以達節能減碳與經濟發展政策之研究 A Goal Programming Approach to Assessing the Policy of Carbon Reduction and Economic Development based on Industry Structure
指導教授：	李雨青 Lee, Yu-Ching 王小璠 Wang, Hsiao-Fan
口試委員:	邱銘傳 Chiu, Ming-Chuan 徐昕煒 Hsu, Hsin-Wei
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
論文出版年：	2021
畢業學年度：	109
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	109
中文關鍵詞：	目標規劃、產業結構、節能減碳、經濟發展、Leontief投入產出模型、Cobb-Douglas生產函數
外文關鍵詞：	GoalProgramming, IndustryStructure, CarbonReduction, EconomicDevelopment, LeontiefI-OModel, Cobb-DouglasProductionTheory
相關次數：	點閱：1 下載：0
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氣候變遷已經成為全球最重要的環境問題之一，隨著氣候的暖化，聯合國制定了相關條約要求各國提出減碳目標，然而結果卻往往不如預期。以往各國在經濟發展與減碳目標下無法兩者兼顧。主要因為經濟發展的來源多側重於碳排放密集的產業，也因此常常因為追求經濟發展而增加額外的碳排放量。此外兩者之間缺乏客觀的量化因素，使得兼顧二者的政策不易制定。同時、以非再生能源為主的能源業又為碳排放量最大的行業之一。
故本研究根據Leontief的投入產出均衡理論和Cobb-Douglas生產函數理論，建構一兩階段目標規劃模型，通過調整國家產業結構來解決這一困境。第一階段在考慮各產業所需的生產要素及需求的同時，提供各產業理想產值，以滿足政府設定的減碳與經濟成長目標。一旦確定了理想的能源產業結構，在第二階段針對電力產業做進一步分析。第二階段將確定再生能源與非再生能源的發電結構。透過此產業結構之產值以追求在經濟發展的同時達到減碳目標，並且政府可以在此基礎上制定相關政策，幫助產業轉型，以達到低碳經濟及永續經營。
本文實例研究乃根據台灣能源局統計資料，將提供帶有權重及優先級別偏好的機制，希望透過此工具為決策者提供參考依據，以促進相關政策的制定與評估程序。

Climate change has become one of the most important environmental issues in the world. With the increasing warming of the earth, the United Nations has formulated environmental treaties, which require countries to commit to carbon reduction targets, however, the results are not optimistic. In the past, countries could not implement economic development and carbon reduction goals simultaneously, because the sources of economic development are mostly focused on carbon emission-intensive industries. There was a lack of objective adjustment between the two.
Therefore, this study proposes a solution to this dilemma by adjusting the national industry structure based on the Leontief Input-Output Equilibrium Theory and Cobb-Douglas Production Theory, a two-stage goal programming module is established. At the first stage, while the required production factors and the demands of each industry are considered, a desirable production value for each industry is provided. Once the ideal supply for the power industry is determined with the desirable industry structure, the individual values of renewable and non-renewable energies are determined at the second stage. Through this production value for each industry, we can achieve the goal of carbon reduction while pursuing economic growth. Based on these results, relevant policies are suggested to assist in transforming industries.
A case study based on the statistics of the Taiwan Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, is used to verify the model. A preference realization mechanism with weighting and priority tools is provided to facilitate the decision support and policy assessment procedure.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT    I
ABSTRACT    II
CONTENTS    IV
LIST OF TABLES    VIII
LIST OF FIGURES    X
1.INTRODUCTION    1
2. LITERATURE REVIEW    4
2.1 Theoretical Foundation    4
2.1.1 Leontief I-O Equilibrium Theory    4
2.1.2 Cobb-Douglas Production Theory    6
2.2 Carbon Reduction Factors    7
2.2.1 Industry Structure    7
2.2.2 Energy Structure    8
2.3 Economic Tools of Carbon Reduction    10
2.3.1 Carbon Tax    10
2.3.2 Carbon Trading System    11
2.4 Quantitative Approach to Decision Support    13
2.4.1 Basic Goal Programming Model    13
2.4.2 Weighted Goal Programming Model    14
2.4.3 Lexicographic Goal Programming Model    14
2.4.4 General Goal Programming Model    15
2.5 Time Series Analysis and Prediction    16
2.6 Summary and Conclusion    17
3. RESEARCH METHOD    19
3.1 Problem Description    19
3.2 First Stage – Industrial Structure Model    21
3.2.1 The Proposed Goal Programming Model (GP1)    21
3.2.2 Scenario Analysis    24
3.3 Second Stage – Power Generation Model    25
3.3.1 The Proposed Goal Programming Model (GP2)    25
3.4 Summary and Conclusion    28
4. CASE STUDY    30
4.1 Data Analysis, Prediction and Forecasting    30
4.2 Numerical Results & Analysis    36
4.3 Discussion    43
4.4 Summary and Conclusion    44
5. PARAMETER ANALYSIS    45
5.1 Deviation Weight Analysis at the 1st Stage    45
5.2 Base Load Capacity Analysis at the 2nd Stage    48
5.3 Discussion and Summary    51
6. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH    55
7. REFERENCES    57
APPENDIX 1: GIVEN DATA ANALYSIS    63
Table A1-1 Investment Budget    63
Table A1-2 Total Labor Force    63
Table A1-3 Average Electricity Carbon Emission Factor    64
APPENDIX 2: PARAMETER PREDICTION    66
Table A2-a1 Energy Sector Carbon Emission Factor    66
Table A2-a2 Industrial Sector Carbon Emission Factor    67
Table A2-a3 Transportation Sector Carbon Emission Factor    67
Table A2-a4 Agricultural Sector Carbon Emission Factor    68
Table A2-a5 Service Sector Carbon Emission Factor    69
Table A2-a6 Other Sector Carbon Emission Factor    70
Table A2-b1 Energy Sector Additional Value Factor    71
Table A2-b2 Industrial Sector Additional Value Factor    72
Table A2-b3 Transportation Sector Additional Value Factor    73
Table A2-b4 Agricultural Sector Additional Value Factor    74
Table A2-b5 Service Sector Additional Value Factor    75
Table A2-b6 Other Sector Additional Value Factor    76
Table A2-c1 Energy Sector Production Cost Factor    77
Table A2-c2 Industrial Sector Production Cost Factor    77
Table A2-c3 Transportation Sector Production Cost Factor    78
Table A2-c4 Agricultural Sector Production Cost Factor    79
Table A2-c5 Service Sector Production Cost Factor    79
Table A2-c6 Other Sector Production Cost Factor    80
Table A2-d1 Energy Sector Labor Cost Factor    81
Table A2-d2 Industrial Sector Labor Cost Factor    82
Table A2-d3 Transportation Sector Labor Cost Factor    83
Table A2-d4 Agricultural Sector Labor Cost Factor    84
Table A2-d5 Service Sector Labor Cost Factor    85
Table A2-d6 Other Sector Labor Cost Factor    86
Table A2-e1 Energy Sector Final Demand    87
Table A2-e2 Industrial Sector Final Demand    88
Table A2-e3 Transportation Sector Final Demand    88
Table A2-e4 Agricultural Sector Final Demand    89
Table A2-e5 Service Sector Final Demand    90
Table A2-e6 Other Sector Final Demand    91
Table A2-f1 Solar Power Generation Conversion Coefficient    92
Table A2-f2 Wind Power Generation Conversion Coefficient    93
Table A2-f3 Other Renewable Energy Power Generation Conversion Coefficient    94
Table A2-f4 Coal Power Generation Conversion Coefficient    95
Table A2-f5 Gas Power Generation Conversion Coefficient    96
Table A2-f6 Other Non-renewable Energy Power Generation Conversion Coefficient    97
Table A2-g1 Solar Power Carbon Emission Factor    98
Table A2-g2 Wind Carbon Emission Factor    99
Table A2-g3 Other Renewable Energy Carbon Emission Factor    100
Table A2-g4 Coal Carbon Emission Factor    101
Table A2-g5 Gas Carbon Emission Factor    102
Table A2-g6 Other Non-renewable Energy Carbon Emission Factor    103
Table A2-h1 Solar Power Generation Cost Factor    104
Table A2-h2 Wind Power Generation Cost Factor    105
Table A2-h3 Other Renewable Energy Power Generation Cost Factor    106
Table A2-h4 Coal Power Generation Cost Factor    107
Table A2-h5 Gas Power Generation Cost Factor    108
Table A2-h6 Other Non-renewable Energy Power Generation Cost Factor    108

                                

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