本研究旨在分析人口老化對台灣勞動市場之影響。我們使用了1997年至2020年的5歲年齡組資料，來分析人口老化對台灣之影響。根據世代基礎模型的想法，我們提出了年代模型來分析人口老化對勞動市場中之青年、中年和老年組群的個別影響。固定效果模型的分析結果顯示，年齡效果顯著地存在於男性及女性的勞參率以及失業率之中。綜合所有模型的估計結果，本研究發現65歲及以上對於男性勞參率的年齡固定效果影響介於-0.4至-0.9之間，對於女性勞參率的影響則是介於-2.7至-2.9之間。在失業率的分析中，男性65歲及以上的年齡固定效果約在-7.3至-8.4之間，女性則是-5.2至-6.9。事實上，我們的研究指出，除了女性的勞參率之外，人口老化對於整個勞動市場都有著顯著的影響。更進一步的分析則顯示，在控制了年代效果之後，人口老化的影響對於男性勞參率依然相當穩健，其中，對於青年、中年、老年族群的影響大約分別是0.7、0.4以及0.2。然而，在年代模型中，人口老化對於失業率之影響難以得到一致的推論，經常性收入與人口老化的關係則是相對薄弱。

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of population aging on the labor market in Taiwan. We utilize age-grouped data from 1997 to 2020 to estimate the population aging effect on the labor market in Taiwan. By revising the cohort based model, we propose the era model that attempts to analyze the population aging effect on different age-level groups, which are the juniors, the middle aged, and the seniors. The result from the fixed-effect model shows that there exists significant age fixed-effect on the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate for both males and females. The findings from all of our models indicate that the age fixed-effect of the age 65 and plus on the male labor force participation rate ranges from -0.4 to -0.9, and this effect for female labor force participation rate ranges from -2.7 to -2.9. In the case of the unemployment rate, the age 65 and plus fixed-effect on the male unemployment rate ranges from -7.3 to -8.4, and this effect ranges from -5.2 to -6.9 for the female unemployment rate. In fact, the population aging effect is shown to have significant effects on the labor market besides the female labor force participation rate. A further analysis from the era model points out that under the control of the era effects, the aging effect remains robust on the male labor force participation rate, which is approximately 0.7, 0.4, and 0.2 respectively for the junior group, the middle aged group and the senior group. However, the result of the unemployment rate is inconclusive and the recurrent income is likely to be driven by factors other than population aging.

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