在台灣，國人普遍有自行購屋之習慣，而房屋價格卻非人人負擔得起，因此非常依賴金融機構所提供的房屋貸款。金融機構於貸放資金後，會面臨借款人在還款行為上的不規則性，其中又以提前清償與違約影響最大，進一步探究其影響因素乃有其必要性。提前清償與違約之影響因素通常可區分為利率與非利率兩方面，以近年來市場利率波動趨於緩和之趨勢來看，非利率影響因素之分析顯得更是重要。本研究直接從貸款特性出發，分析包含貸款期間、貸款年齡、貸款償還方式等七個變數對提前清償與違約之影響，並利用邏輯特（logit）迴歸模型作實證分析，實證結果亦顯示非利率影響因素對借款人不規則還款行為存在顯著影響。

Abstract

In Taiwan, people generally like to purchase their own house but the price of a house is not affordable to everyone. As the result, people tend to largely rely on the mortgage from financial institutions. On the other hand, financial institutions have to face the problem of borrowers making irregular payments. Prepayment and default are the two irregular payment problems effecting financial institutions the most. It is necessary to explore the factors effecting prepayment and default. The factors effecting prepayment and default can be interest rate associated or not. Recent trend of market interest rate displays mild fluctuation, which implies that the effect not associated with interest rate is more important. This study uses logit regression model to empirically analyze how loan term, loan age, loan payment method and seven other independent variables effect prepayment and default. The result shows that factor not associated with interest rate has great effect on borrowers’ irregular payment behavior.

Keywords：mortgage, prepayment, default, logit regression model

一、中文部分
1.王濟川、郭志剛（2003），Logistic迴歸模型方法及應用，五南文
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2.陳文達、廖咸興、李阿乙（2002），資產證券化理論與實務，智勝
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3.郭姿伶（1999），「住宅貸款之提前清償與逾期還款」，國立中正
大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
4.劉展宏、張金鶚（2001)，「購屋貸款提前清償行為之研究」，住
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5.謝明瑞（2002），「台灣實施不動產低押貸款債權證券化之問
題」，國家政策論壇，2(6)，44-51。

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