There are several measures to compute the default risk. We use Naïve model which is proposed by Bharath and Shumway (2008) as the basic formula. Here, we consider the investor’s uncertainty about the firm value called uncertainty change their evaluation of the equity. We expected the model added Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) to measure the uncertainty of investor is slightly accurate to predict default risk. Cox proportional hazard model is adopted to fit the conditional situation. CDS spread is the pattern to gauge how close our estimated values are. Under the above two methodologies, CCI could be an effective variable to measure default probability and added into default probability formula.

There are several measures to compute the default risk. We use Naïve model which is proposed by Bharath and Shumway (2008) as the basic formula. Here, we consider the investor’s uncertainty about the firm value called uncertainty change their evaluation of the equity. We expected the model added Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) to measure the uncertainty of investor is slightly accurate to predict default risk. Cox proportional hazard model is adopted to fit the conditional situation. CDS spread is the pattern to gauge how close our estimated values are. Under the above two methodologies, CCI could be an effective variable to measure default probability and added into default probability formula.

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