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研究生: 林柏輝
Lin, Bo-Hui
論文名稱: 股票和房地產的最佳投資組合:機器學習方法
Optimal stock and real estate portfolios: Machine Learning Methods
指導教授: 蔡怡純
Tsai, I-Chun
口試委員: 江明珠
Chiang, Ming-Chu
陳勤明
Chen, Chin-Ming
王文楷
Wang, Wen-Kai
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 計量財務金融學系
Department of Quantitative Finance
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 38
中文關鍵詞: 因子投資機器學習選股不動產投資信託基金
外文關鍵詞: Factor investing, machine learning stock selection, REITs
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  • 本研究主要透過一些過往被證實會對股價報酬有所影響的因子,如價值因子、品質因子、低波動因子、規模因子、動能因子等,和一些常用的股價基本資料和技術指標做為特徵,並透過機器學習模型挑選出預期表現好的股票並以此來建構投資組合。然而以上特徵與財報相關資料為季資料與股價基本資料和技術指標則為日資料,因此本研究中參考Hsu (2021)針對時間序列的特徵工程建構方式將日資料轉換為季資料,並以此來大幅增加特徵數量。
    研究結果表明透過這樣子的選股模型不論是應用於同產業間選擇股票建構投資組合,又或者是在不同產業間各自選擇表現好的股票建構投資組合選股績效都是優於元大台灣卓越50基金(0050)的。此外研究中也考慮將REITs納入投資組合中,並且比較納入REITs與原先純股票投組的差異性。結果顯示在投資組合中納入REITs可以降低投組的波動性,並且獲得比原先單純股票的投組更穩定的投資績效表現。


    This study primarily utilizes various factors that have been previously confirmed to impact stock returns, such as value, quality, low volatility, size, momentum factors, etc., along with commonly used stock fundamental data and technical indicators as features. Through machine learning models, it selects stocks expected to perform well and constructs an investment portfolio based on this selection. However, while the aforementioned features and financial data are quarterly, stock fundamental data and technical indicators are daily. Therefore, following the approach proposed by Hsu (2021) for time-series feature engineering, daily data is transformed into quarterly data, significantly increasing the number of features.
    The results indicate that employing such a stock selection model, whether applied to choosing stocks within the same industry to construct an investment portfolio or selecting well-performing stocks across different industries, outperforms the Yuanta Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050). Furthermore, the study considers incorporating REITs into the investment portfolio and compares the differences between including REITs and the original pure stock portfolio. The findings suggest that including REITs in the portfolio can reduce portfolio volatility and achieve a more stable investment performance compared to the original pure stock portfolio.

    摘要.................................. i Abstract..............................ii 目錄.................................iii 表目錄.................................v 圖目錄............................... vi 第一章 緒論............................1 第一節 研究背景........................1 第二節 研究動機........................1 第三節 研究目的........................2 第四節 研究架構........................2 第二章 文獻回顧........................4 第一節 傳統投資組合模型.................4 第二節 有效因子........................4 第三節 隨機森林演算法於股市中的應用......6 第四節 REITs相關.......................7 第三章 資料說明........................10 第一節 研究樣本........................10 第二節 資料收集........................11 第四章 模型設定........................14 第一節 模型架構........................14 第二節 特徵工程建構....................15 第三節 特徵選取........................16 第四節 區分訓練樣本及測試樣本...........17 第五節 隨機森林演算法..................17 第六節 投資組合建構....................21 第五章 實證結果........................23 第一節 同產業選股......................23 第二節 各產業選股......................27 第三節 納入REITs......................30 第四節 各產業表現良好股票與重要特徵.....31 第六章 結論...........................36 參考文獻..............................37

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