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研究生: 宋偉彰
Sung, Wei-Chang
論文名稱: 應用馬可夫模型進行發電機跳脫特殊保護之風險評估
Applications of Markov Model-based Risk Assessments to Special Protection Systems Using Generator Rejection Schemes
指導教授: 朱家齊
Chu, Chia-Chi
口試委員: 劉志文
洪穎怡
吳有基
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電機資訊學院 - 電機工程學系
Department of Electrical Engineering
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 107
中文關鍵詞: 特殊保護系統矯正動作措施發電機跳脫機制馬可夫模型可靠度暫態穩定度風險評估
外文關鍵詞: Special Protection System(SPS), Remedial Action Schemes(RAS), Generation Rejection Schemes (GRS), Markov Modeling, Reliability, Transient Stability, Risk Assessments, Critical Clearing Time, Angle Margin (AM), Swing Margin(AM)
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  • 近年來,環保議題、土地與路權不易取得,導致輸電線路的建設日趨困難,使得系統供電可靠度降低。因此,具有增加線路傳輸容量、幫助調度員執行快速矯正動作,及建設工期短的特殊保護系統,設備數量逐漸增加,同時也增加系統運轉上的風險。特殊保護系統的應用又分為發電控制、卸載、高速無效電壓補償及減緩壅塞等。在此,採發電機控制中,發電機跳脫機制為主要矯正動作措施。
    本論文主要應用馬可夫模型,進行發電機跳脫特殊保護之可靠度及風險評估,其中包括:(1) 一選一投票跳脫一組機組機制、(2) 三選二投票跳脫一組機組機制、(3) 一選一投票跳脫兩組機組機制。
    可靠度分析中,比較一選一投票機制及三選二投票機制可知,使用三選二投票機制的可靠度為0.9787優於1選1投票機制的0.96021;風險評估方面,可清楚了解系統在裝設發電機跳脫機制,與裝設任一種發電機跳脫機制架構相比較,當電廠總發電機量大於警戒值,未裝設發電機跳脫機制的系統風險,將遠大於有裝設的風險,驗證利用備援系統,可有效提高系統可靠度及風險。並以暫態安全評估工具(DSATools),使用者自定義模型進行建模。以暫態穩定度分析,執行臨界清除時間,暫態穩定度指標(功率搖擺之穩定指標、功率角之穩定指標),驗證系統加入發電機跳脫機制,可延長系統臨界清除時間、改善暫態穩定度指標,與降低區域機組暫態不穩定。


    In recent years, the construction of new transmission lines is
    increasingly difficult due to environmental concerns, land acquisition, etc.
    As a result, the reliability of the entire power system is not adequate. One
    simple way to solve this task is to apply special protection systems to
    perform a quick corrective action. Thus, the entire system stability will be
    enhanced.
    System protection schemes include the generator tripping, load
    shedding, high speed reactive voltage compensations and congestion
    mitigations. In this thesis, we will focus on Markov model-based risk
    assessments for special protection systems using generator rejection
    schemes. This includes (1) one out of one rejection for one generator
    mechanism, (2) two out of three rejections for one generator mechanism,
    and (3) one out of one rejection for two generators mechanism.
    Based on transient security assessment tools DSA Tools, a
    user-defined model is utilized for model developments first. Then,
    transient stabilty assessments are investigated. From extensive simulation
    results, we have the following observations:
    (1) Regarding reliability analysis, two out of three rejections for one
    generator mechanism has 97.87% greater than 96.021% of one out of
    one rejection for one generator mechanism.
    (2) Regarding risk assessments, the power plant without generator
    rejection mechanism is more risky than the power plant with
    III
    generator rejection mechanism when power output exceeds the
    maximum load. Therefore, using redundant systems can effectively
    increase system reliability and reduce risk.
    (3) The critical clearing time, Angle Margin (AM), and Swing Margin
    (AM) can be indeed improved if generator rejection schemes are
    applied for emergency control.

    摘要 I Abstract II 致謝 IV 圖目錄 V 表目錄 VIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景與動機 1 1.2研究相關回顧 1 1.3研究貢獻 4 1.4論文內容概要 5 第二章 特殊保護系統基本原理 6 2.1 前言 6 2.2 特殊保護系統介紹 6 2.3 特殊保護系統之基本架構 7 2.4 發電機跳脫之簡介 8 2.5 應用於台電系統之特殊保護系統’ 9 2.6 本章結論 14 第三章 可靠度與風險評估 15 3.1前言 15 3.2 可靠度定性分析方法 15 3.2.1 故障模式影響分析(Failure Mode Effect Analysis,FMEA) 15 3.3可靠度定量分析方法 16 3.3.1 馬可夫模型法(Markov Modeling) 17 3.4馬可夫於風險評估之程序 22 3.5本章結論 26 第四章 以馬可夫法執行風險評估 27 4.1問題描述 27 4.2系統介紹 28 4.3 架構1.1:1選1投票機制 31 4.3.1事件確認 31 4.3.2 可靠度評估 31 4.3.3 風險來源確認與風險表示 37 4.3.4 衝擊評估 45 4.3.5 風險結果 47 4.4架構1.2:3選2投票機制 48 4.4.1 可靠度評估 49 4.4.2 風險結果 59 4.5架構2.1 60 4.5.1 事件確認 61 4.5.2 可靠度評估 61 4.5.3 風險來源確認與風險表示 66 4.5.4 衝擊評估 80 4.5.5 風險結果 83 4.6架構2.2 85 4.7本章結論 87 第五章 模擬結果 88 5.1時域模擬驗證 88 5.1.1 架構1.1 88 5.1.2 架構1.2 94 5.1.3 架構2.1 97 5.1.4 架構2.2 100 5.2本章結論 102 第六章結論與建議 103 參考文獻 105

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