過去探討房屋貸款之風險評估主要關心「if」的問題，也就是借款戶是否會發生違約或是否會發生提前清償的事件。1990年初期，當倖存分析方法被應用於貸款之風險評估後，「when」，即貸款人何時會提前清償或違約的問題，開始為風險評估系統所強調。本文以離散危險模型建立提前清償風險之評估系統，實證結果發現，提前清償風險受到季節性、相對市場利率、重新借貸疲乏度、當期貸款成數及貸款創始年等因素影響。從用以診斷方法正確性的AUC（area under the ROC curve）來看，該系統於風險評估具有ㄧ定的解釋力。至於貸款壽命問題，本文選定風險評估之門檻值，判定超過該值者為可能提前清償，並以多項指標評估此項判定之正確性。

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