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研究生： 洪岦岳
Xavier Hong
論文名稱： 反向設計之智慧型維修分析：以手機為例
Intelligent Repair Analysis for Backward Design: Using Cellular Phones as Examples
指導教授： 許棟樑
D. Daniel Sheu
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系
Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
論文出版年： 2007
畢業學年度： 95
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 91
中文關鍵詞： 動態統計 、模糊決策樹 、權重式案例推理 、依案例績效與理想解相似度
外文關鍵詞： Dynamic Statistics, Fuzzy Decision Tree, Case Based Reasoning, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution
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    • 在維修產業中，判斷故障原因是複雜且技術性的步驟，往往需要由有經驗的
    維修工程師來執行，造成薪資成本高且培育不易等種種人事問題，因此這個問題
    一直困擾著維修產業。本研究運用了動態統計、模糊決策樹、權重式案例推理、
    及依案例績效與理想解相似度排序之技術等方法，建立了一個智慧型維修系統，
    並提出了五個績效指標，以某手機維修單位一個月份的真實資料為分析資料，其
    中分別以三種維修量較大的廠牌手機進行分析。以四種故障判斷方法所得的績效
    結果與現行作法加以比較，結果顯示本研究所提出之四種方法均優於現行作法，
    而其中以模糊決策樹和權重式案例推理的績效最優，修復手機的時間改善量分別
    高達現行作法的21%與16%，若換算成薪資，其數目將更為可觀。
    本研究的貢獻包括：
    1. 四種故障判斷方法，在績效上皆優於現行故障判斷方法。
    2. 以四種方法論工具為基礎，設計一個自動化的智慧型故障判斷系統。並
    以手機維修產業真實案例為分析資料，對三大廠牌手機進行分析，結果
    對實務界有一定程度的幫助。

    In the repair industry, diagnosing the cause of failure is complicated and time
    consuming. It usually takes experienced repair engineers and trial-and-error processes
    are often involved causing man power availability and high-cost problems. The study
    used dynamic statistics, Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT), Case Based Reasoning (CBR),
    and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to
    establish an intelligent repair system. One month width of real data on the repairs of
    cellular phones from three leading brands were collected and analyzed by the
    intelligent repair system. The results shown that all form tested diagnostic methods
    are better than the existing. In particular, the FDT and CBR methods show
    improvements of 21% & 16% in time to locate and fix problems.
    Contributions of this research include:
    1. Proposing four methods of repair diagnosis approach which are all better than
    the current approach. The FDT method is especially recommended.
    2. Establishing an intelligent cellular phone diagnosis system which can be used in
    the industry.

    目錄 摘要........................................................................................................................... I Abstract..................................................................................................................... II 誌謝.........................................................................................................................III 目錄........................................................................................................................ IV 表目錄..................................................................................................................VIII 第一章 緒論.........................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究目的................................................................................................. 1 1.3 問題描述................................................................................................. 2 1.4 研究流程................................................................................................. 4 第二章 文獻回顧.................................................................................6 2.1 維修資料介紹......................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 維修資料格式................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 徵狀................................................................................................ 7 2.1.3 原因................................................................................................ 9 2.1.4 處理................................................................................................ 9 2.1.5 徵狀、原因、及處理三者之關係.................................................11 2.2 現行維修方法........................................................................................14 2.2.1 開關機相關問題............................................................................15 2.2.2 顯示相關問題................................................................................16 2.2.3 聲音相關問題................................................................................17 2.3 模糊決策樹(Fuzzy Decision Tree, FDT)相關文獻.................................18 2.3.1 方法簡介.......................................................................................18 2.3.2 方法步驟.......................................................................................18 2.3.3 相關應用.......................................................................................20 2.4 案例式推理(Case Based Reasoning, CBR)相關文獻..............................21 2.4.1 方法簡介.......................................................................................21 2.4.2 方法步驟.......................................................................................21 2.4.3 相關應用.......................................................................................22 2.5 依案例績效與理想解相似度排序之技術(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)相關文獻.............................................23 2.5.1 方法簡介.......................................................................................23 2.5.2 方法步驟.......................................................................................23 2.5.3 相關應用.......................................................................................27 2.6 本章結論................................................................................................27 第三章 研究方法...............................................................................28 3.1 研究理念................................................................................................28 3.2 動態統計(Dynamic Statistics).................................................................29 3.3 模糊決策樹(Fuzzy Decision Tree)..........................................................31 3.4 權重式案例推理(Weighted Case Based Reasoning) ...............................37 3.4.1 相似度定義....................................................................................39 3.4.2 方法步驟.......................................................................................42 3.5 依案例績效與理想解相似度排序之技術(Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)........................................42 3.6 績效指標設計........................................................................................47 3.7 本章結論................................................................................................48 第四章 系統設計...............................................................................49 4.1 系統目的................................................................................................49 4.2 系統使用說明........................................................................................49 4.2.1 系統架構.......................................................................................49 4.2.2 系統主選單與資料輸入介面.........................................................50 4.2.3 動態統計介面................................................................................52 4.2.4 案例式推理與TOPSIS 介面.........................................................53 4.2.5 模糊決策樹介面............................................................................56 4.3 系統實例操作........................................................................................57 4.3.1 動態統計介面................................................................................58 4.3.2 案例式推理與TOPSIS 介面.........................................................59 4.3.3 模糊決策樹介面............................................................................60 4.3.4 結果比較.......................................................................................61 第五章 案例驗證...............................................................................63 5.1 案例問題與分群設計.............................................................................63 5.1.1 案例問題.......................................................................................63 5.1.2 分群設計.......................................................................................64 5.2 方法績效指標........................................................................................65 5.2.1 判斷正確所需次數........................................................................65 5.2.2 判斷正確所需時間........................................................................66 5.2.3 維修手機修復時間........................................................................66 5.2.4 一次成功率....................................................................................68 5.2.5 三次失敗率....................................................................................68 5.3 實證結果分析........................................................................................69 5.3.1 案例結果分析................................................................................69 5.3.2 方法比較與選擇............................................................................75 5.3.3 財務效益評估................................................................................80 第六章 結論與未來研究方向............................................................81 6.1 結論........................................................................................................81 6.2 未來研究方向........................................................................................81 6.2.1 引伸研究.......................................................................................81 6.2.2 細節深入研究................................................................................81 參考文獻...............................................................................................83 附錄.......................................................................................................86 附錄A 廠牌N 群組資料..................................................................................86 附錄B 廠牌O 群組資料..................................................................................89 圖目錄 圖1.1 手機維修工作站式維修流程........................................................................ 3 圖1.2 研究範圍....................................................................................................... 4 圖1.3 研究流程....................................................................................................... 5 圖2.1 徵狀、原因、及處理間關係.......................................................................13 圖2.2 CBR 基本概念..............................................................................................22 圖3.1 研究理念......................................................................................................28 圖3. 2 動態統計方法示意.....................................................................................29 圖3.3 權重式案例推理示意...................................................................................37 圖3.4 依案例績效與理想解相似度排序之技術示意............................................43 圖4. 1 系統架構.....................................................................................................50 圖4. 2 維修資料表(未輸入資料) ...........................................................................50 圖4. 3 智慧型維修系統主選單..............................................................................51 圖4. 4 資料輸入介面.............................................................................................51 圖4. 5 維修資料表(已輸入資料) ...........................................................................52 圖4. 6 動態統計介面.............................................................................................53 圖4. 7 案例式推理選擇介面..................................................................................54 圖4. 8 案例相似度計算介面..................................................................................54 圖4. 9 案例式推理介面.........................................................................................55 圖4. 10 TOPSIS 介面..............................................................................................56 圖4. 11 模糊決策樹介面........................................................................................57 圖4. 12 動態統計實例結果....................................................................................58 圖4. 13 案例式推理實例結果................................................................................59 圖4. 14 TOPSIS 實例結果......................................................................................60 圖4. 15 模糊決策樹實例結果................................................................................61 圖5. 1 基本資料與測試資料..................................................................................64 圖5. 2 實驗分群示意.............................................................................................65 圖5. 3 系統判斷原因與真實原因之比對..............................................................66 圖5. 4 維修手機修復時間示意..............................................................................67 表目錄 表2.1 維修資料格式............................................................................................... 7 表2.2 手機主要故障徵狀....................................................................................... 8 表2.3 手機細部故障徵狀(顯示問題為例).............................................................. 8 表2.4 手機主要故障原因....................................................................................... 9 表2.5 手機主要故障處理......................................................................................10 表2.6 徵狀、原因、及處理關係(顯示問題為例) .................................................11 表2.7 徵狀、原因、及處理關係(聲音問題為例) .................................................12 表2.8 模糊決策樹相關應用...................................................................................20 表2.9 案例式推理相關應用...................................................................................22 表2.10 TOPSIS 相關應用.......................................................................................27 表3.1 模糊維修資料格式......................................................................................32 表3.2 不同機型下故障原因比例...........................................................................39 表3.3 不同故障徵狀下故障原因比例...................................................................40 表3.4 故障原因決策評估矩陣...............................................................................44 表3.5 案例權重......................................................................................................44 表4. 1 維修手機實例.............................................................................................57 表4. 2 方法實例結果比較.....................................................................................62 表5. 1 維修資料選擇.............................................................................................63 表5. 2 維修手機修復時間基本假設......................................................................68 表5. 3 廠牌M 判斷正確所需次數與時間(群組1 和2) ........................................69 表5. 4 廠牌M 判斷正確所需次數與時間(群組3 和4) ........................................70 表5. 5 廠牌M 判斷正確所需次數與時間(群組5)................................................70 表5. 6 廠牌M 判斷成功率、失敗率及維修手機修復時間(群組1 和2) .............71 表5. 7 廠牌M 判斷成功率、失敗率及維修手機修復時間(群組3 和4) .............72 表5. 8 廠牌M 判斷成功率、失敗率及維修手機修復時間(群組5).....................72 表5. 9 廠牌M 綜合績效比較................................................................................73 表5. 10 廠牌N 綜合績效比較...............................................................................74 表5. 11 廠牌O 綜合績效比較...............................................................................74 表5. 12 各廠牌績效整理表....................................................................................75 表5. 13 各評估屬性的權重....................................................................................76 表5. 14 各方案相對近似度....................................................................................78 表5. 15 方法比較(應用面).....................................................................................79 表6. 1 方法維修時間改善量..................................................................................80

    83
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