本論文主要研究目的，在於針對馬鞍山電廠預期暫態未急停(ATWS)安全分析，建立一套TRACE模式，以確認當事故發生時，反應器冷卻水系統(RCS)的壓力變化可維持在ASME Code Level C Service Limit Criterion所規範的22.06 MPa以內。馬鞍山電廠為美國西屋公司(Westinghouse Electric Corporation)設計的三迴路壓水式電廠，運轉功率在2009年小幅度功率提升至2822 MWt。壓水式反應器預期暫態未急停肇始因素為可預期的暫態加上反應器保護系統的電力或機械失效，導致反應器冷卻水系統壓力驟升。
為了符合美國核管會(USNRC)法規10 CFR 50.62的要求，馬鞍山電廠設置了ATWS緩抑系統動作線路(AMSAC)，主要功能為當發生預期暫態而反應器跳脫系統(RTS)與特殊安全設施引動系統(ESFAS)卻失效的情況下，作為後備系統觸發汽機跳脫及啟動輔助飼水。研究結果指出，在足夠的負緩和劑溫度係數以及AMSAC和閥門正常作動，反應器冷卻水系統壓力仍能維持在法規要求的22.06 MPa以內。
本研究接著進一步分析了多重失效模式的電廠全黑預期暫態未急停(SBO ATWS)，且探討可能的應對措施。除此之外，更建立了FRAPTRAN模式以分析燃料棒可靠度，以及DAKOTA模式於不準度分析。確保結果符合法規要求的RCS壓力低於22.06 MPa、PCT低於1477 K、護套環應變低於0.01、燃料熱焓低於170 cal/g，以及無PCMI發生。

The objective of this thesis is to develop a TRACE model for Maanshan nuclear power plant to analyze RCS pressure, which should be within 22.06 MPa of ASME Code Level C Service Limit Criterion under ATWS. Maanshan nuclear power plant is a three-loop pressurized water reactor power plant which designed by Westinghouse Electric Corporation, and its power rate is uprated to 2822 MWt by measurement uncertainty recapture since 2009. The PWR ATWS sequence starts with an anticipated transient and the electrical or mechanical failure of the RPS, and the ATWS transient results in a RCS pressure rise.
According to 10 CFR 50.62 of U.S. NRC, Maanshan NPP has set up AMSAC as a backup system to actuate turbine trip and auxiliary feedwater if RTS and ESFAS were failed. According to the results, with sufficient negative moderator temperature coefficient, normal work of AMSAC and valves, RCS pressure could keep within 22.06 MPa.
Furthermore, the model of SBO ATWS has been made for multiple failure analysis and discussing probable mitigation strategy. Besides, a FRAPTRAN model has been developed for analyzing fuel rod reliability, and a DAKOTA model developed for uncertainty analysis. To make sure it conforms the regulations of RCS pressure below 22.06 MPa, PCT below 1477 K, cladding hoop strain below 0.01, fuel enthalpy below 170 cal/g, and no PCMI occurred.

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