This dissertation studies demand substitution policies integrating to production, transportation, and sales management in a multi-stage supply chain. Quality-graded products with full downward substitutable demands are considered. The objective is to enhance profitability for handling quality-graded products. In the upstream supply chain, we study production and transportation control (PTC) problems under price and demand uncertainties in a multi-product, two-stage, and hybrid Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) production chain. PTC problems are formulated as several two-stage robust optimization (RO) models. An iterative procedure is developed to apply and solve these models. In the downstream supply chain, we examine dynamic selling (DS) problems for products with two quality grades under demand uncertainties. DS problems are formulated as discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP) models and solved by dynamic programming method.
Our simulation study in PTC problems shows that the proposed method can significantly increase profits while reducing transportation and inventory costs. In addition to improving the mean and variance of profits, we use several risk measures to verify the robustness of the iterative optimization procedure. Moreover, we prove the structure of optimal policies that significantly reduce computational complexity in solving DS problems. Performance of optimal dynamic selling policies is evaluated in detailed numerical studies. In particular, we propose the demand substitution procedure to integrate DS and PTC problems that foresees potential profitability in long-term problems with quality grade and uncertainty considerations. Finally, managerial insights related to production and transportation, sale, and demand substitution policies are provided for further practical application.

本論文研究在多階供應鏈中整合需求替代策略下之生產與運輸控制，以及銷售管理。主要著眼於多品質等級產品與可完全向下的需求替代，目標在處理供應鏈中的多品質等級產品以提升獲利能力。在供應鏈上游，本論文研究一多產品、兩期，以及混合式TFT-LCD面板生產鏈在價格與需求不確定下的生產與運輸控制問題。我們建構多個兩階段穩健最佳化模式來架構此問題，同時發展一個遞迴式的程序來求解模式。此外，在供應鏈下游，本論文研究兩個品質等級產品在需求不確定下之動態銷售問題。我們將此問題建構成離散時間的馬可夫決策過程模式並透過動態規劃進行求解。
研究結果顯示，兩階段穩健最佳化模式與遞迴式求解程序不僅可以明顯提升利潤，亦可增加求解結果對價格與需求不確定的穩健性，本論文使用多個風險量測指標來驗證遞迴式最佳化求解程序的穩健性。此外，在動態銷售問題中，我們證明了銷售策略的最佳化結構，此結果將可大幅降低處理多維度決策問題的運算複雜度。
最重要的是，本論文提出一個結合供應鏈特性的需求替代程序，可以將動態銷售與生產與運輸控制問題加以整合，此需求替代程序可以針對考慮品質等級特性與不確定性之多期問題提供潛在獲利能力的預先評估。最後，本論文分別對生產與運輸控制、銷售，以及需求替代策略歸納出管理意涵，以作為後續實務上應用的基礎。

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