研究生: |
吳齊軒 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
類流感高峰預測之相關議題 Some Issues on Peak Prediction for Influenza-Like Illness |
指導教授: | 徐南蓉 |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
理學院 - 統計學研究所 Institute of Statistics |
論文出版年: | 2010 |
畢業學年度: | 98 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 49 |
中文關鍵詞: | 類流感 、ARIMA model 、尖峰預測 、非線性迴歸 |
外文關鍵詞: | influenza, ARIMA model, peak prediction, nonlinear regression |
相關次數: | 點閱:3 下載:0 |
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In this thesis, we review some models related to Influenza-Like Illness(ILI) and
investigate the need of peak prediction in practice and surveillance. By intuition, the
historical data provide a good predictor at the beginning, but become worthless at the
end of current season. We propose a nonlinear regression model to predict peak with
empirical prior as a penalize term which is a link between historical data and current
observation. Our method performs well six weeks before peak occurred.
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