過去教育階層化、都市社會學與教育分流對於教育取得的研究，因為彼此缺乏交集，使得教育城鄉差距的問題，無法透過既有文獻有效地回應。本文針對1960－1989年來三十年的出生人口，利用「臺灣社會變遷調查」資料，並採用多層次邏輯迴歸模型進行分析。首先從地區人口成長角度，理解近年臺灣都市化的過程，以及梳理高教擴張的歷史和特色。並且透過檢視群聚效應與鄰里效應的論點，以釐清上大學城鄉差距的型塑過程。最後提出教育分流軌跡的觀點，分析高中時期的分流體制，在教育城鄉差距型的塑過程中所扮演的角色。

研究結果顯示，在1978－2007年高教擴張的過程中，城鄉之間上大學的機率差距並沒有擴增趨勢，而是持續穩定地鞏固，不論個人過去居住在人口密度或高教人口比例較高之地區，皆未在此期間呈現出增強的上大學優勢。其次，個人過去居住地區的人口密度高低，是導致上大學城鄉差距的根源，而非高教人口比例多寡。隨機效果的檢驗，也支持人口密度是地區間上大學機率差異的關鍵因素，這符合群聚效應的論點。最後是分流軌跡之主張，顯示出相較於高中生，高職生過去成長於高教人口比例越高的地區，越能改善其分流本身上大學的弱勢情況。然而在暢通技職的高教擴張下，大幅地吸納高教人口比例較低地區的高職生，此受高教人口比例影響的作用，即在高職生身上消失。

簡言之，臺灣上大學城鄉差距的根源主要來自人口的分布，是透過群聚效應的型塑而非鄰里效應，且此城鄉差距於高教擴張下穩定存在。而獨作用於高職生之高教人口比例的效果，已經在高教擴張下消逝。

Previous educational attainment research in the fields of educational stratification, urban sociology and educational tracking studies lacked an interdisciplinary approach, and hence was unable to explain the rural-urban gap in college attainment in Taiwan. Using data from the 1997, 2002 and 2007 Taiwan Social Change Surveys with multilevel logistic regression, this paper will analyze the influence of urbanization processes and the history of higher educational expansion. Following, the hypotheses of cluster effect and neighborhood effect will be examined to figure out the precise social mechanism forming the urban-rural gap, and the role of tracking in shaping this gap will be also analyzed.

Statistical results show that the rural-urban gap had been persistent during the whole process of educational expansion from 1978 to 2007. Secondly, it will be shown that the rural-urban gap in college attainment is created by differences in population density in the area of residence of individuals rather than being a result of the higher percentage of highly-educated population in that area. The critical significance of population density is further supported by random effect examination. These results strongly argue in support of the cluster effect on college attainment rather than neighborhood effect. Lastly, compared to senior high students, vocational students will increase the likelihood of college attainment if they live in areas with a higher percentage of highly educated people. However, the educational expansion eliminated this effect by rapidly providing numerous educational opportunities for them.

To sum up, the formation of the rural-urban gap in college attainment in Taiwan is persistently determined by cluster effect in spite of educational expansion. The unique effect on vocational students from the percentage of highly educated people had been removed under this expansion.

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