簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 林志聰
論文名稱: 應用類神經網路及管制圖手法於失誤預警系統之研發
The application of neural network and quality control chart in developing early warning system
指導教授: 黃雪玲
王明揚
口試委員:
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系
Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 66
中文關鍵詞: 人為失誤預警系統核電廠封裝廠自組性演算法心智負荷
外文關鍵詞: Human error, pre-alarm system, nuclear power plant (NPP), integrated circuit (IC) packaging plant, group method of data handling (GMDH), mental workload
相關次數: 點閱:3下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 近年來,人為失誤被認為是引發意外的主因之一,不論是何種型態的工廠,人為失誤都可能引起許多有形和無形的損失,而人為失誤的預防對核電廠而言更形重要,不論在核電廠的控制或維修,人都扮演了極為重要的角色,在過去的研究調查指出,核電廠所發生的意外中,人為失誤佔了約三到五成的比重,也因此,本研究核心目標將針對控制和維修環境,分別設計與發展合適之預警機制,以期在失誤發生之前,能及時提醒作業人員並避免災害的發生。
    首先,在核電廠主控室的部份,本研究將應用品質管制圖的管制法則於核電廠的重要監控參數上,並同時設計兩種不同的預警介面,過程中,所有受試者將會模擬操作正常與異常兩種不同的情境,而這兩種情境包括了降載反應爐和棄載等兩種情況,實驗因變數則包括了工作績效、心智負荷和情境知覺等項目。而在維修的部份,由於核電廠維修大部份都必需線上完成,因此維修人員在時間壓力下也往往有較高的心智負荷,對此,本研究也將應用類神經GMDH網路建立維修人員之心智負荷預測模式,透過此模式的建立,管理者可分配合適的工作量及時間以避免維修人員心智負荷過重而引發意外。另外,本論文也進一步應用GMDH在IC封裝廠內建立視覺疲勞預警系統,藉以了解方法論在其他產業應用之可行性。
    本研究結果指出:(1)在預警系統的輔助下受測者可有效減少警報響起的次數並有較高的次要工作績效。(2)預警系統的導入並不僅不會造成情境知覺的降低,還可有效降低運轉員的工作負荷。(3)在維修方面,由GMDH所建立的模式對心智負荷有不錯的預測能力,未來亦可提供給管理者作為安排維修工作負荷之依據。(4)GMDH方法應用IC封裝廠中,最後結果也顯示模式的導入不僅可降低作業員的視覺疲勞還可有效提高產線的良率。


    Many studies have showed the human errors were the major reason to cause of the accident. In fact, human errors may result in tangible or intangible cost loss and influence of system safety. Especially in nuclear power plant (NPP), serious human failure would damage to operation safety. Thus, no matter what the roles they are, such as operation or maintenance, each of the people in NPPs is played as a vital role. Previous studies indicate that about 30 to 50 percent accidents were result from human failure. Hence, the aim of this dissertation would design two early warning methods in control room and maintenance department. The proposed early warning methods in this study could decrease human error in both control room and maintenance environment.

    First of all, this study applied the concepts of the Shewhart control chart to design a pre-alarm system for NPP control room. Two pre-alarm types were designed to compare with the original system, and all participants were requested to monitor each simulated system under both normal and abnormal states. The tasks for the participants included shutting down the reactor, searching for procedures, monitoring system parameters and executing secondary tasks. In each trial, the task performance, mental workload and situation awareness (SA) of the participants were measured. Respecting to maintenance, currently, on-line maintenance for NPPs is performed quite often while the system is in operation. The limited maintenance time very often bring heavy mental workload to their engineers. Therefore, according to the factors affecting the mental workload, this dissertation would construct a predictive mental workload model while maintaining digital systems in NPP. Through predicting mental workload, the manager can organize the human resources for each daily task to sustain the appropriate mental workload as well as improve maintenance performance. Finally, to verify the feasibility of the proposed scheme, this dissertation further applies GMDH into IC packaging plant to develop a suitable pre-alarm system.

    The results indicated (1) that participants had lower mental workload, but equal SA, when monitoring the system with either type of pre-alarm designs, (2) that lower alarm frequency and higher secondary task performance were obtained with the pre-alarm design, (3) that the proposed model is expected to provide the supervisor a reference value of engineers’ mental workload and the prediction ability of the model was high. (4) GMDH can construct a reliable pre-alarm system to reduce operators’ visual fatigue and raise yield rate in IC packaging plant.

    中文摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 IV Figure Captions IX Table Captions X Chapter1. Introduction 1 1.1 Background and motivation 1 1.2 Objective 2 1.3 Research Structure 4 Chapter2. Literature Review 6 2.1 Relevant research on human error 6 2.1.1 Human error prevention in NPPs 8 2.1.2 Human error prevention in IC rework department 9 2.2 Prevention methods of human error 11 2.2.1 Group method of data handling 11 2.2.2 Quality control chart techniques 12 2.3 Early warning system development 13 Chapter3. A pre-alarm system design in NPP control room 15 3.1 Experiment 1 15 3.1.1 Background and Method 15 3.1.1.1 Monitor and control procedure in the control room 15 3.1.1.2 The pre-alarm system 16 3.1.1.3 The QCC control principles in pre-alarm system 17 3.1.2 Validation experiment 20 3.1.2.1 Subjects 20 3.1.2.2 Apparatus 20 3.1.2.3 Independent variables 21 3.1.2.4 Experimental procedure and tasks 21 3.1.2.5 Dependent variables 24 3.1.3 Experimental results 25 3.1.3.1 Primary task performance 25 3.1.3.2 Secondary task performance 26 3.1.3.3 Mental workload 26 3.1.3.4 SA 26 3.1.3.5 Subjective preference rating 27 3.2 Experiment 2 27 3.2.1 Method 27 3.2.1.1 Participants 27 3.2.1.2 Apparatus 27 3.2.1.3 Experimental tasks and procedure 28 3.2.1.4 Experimental variables 30 3.2.2 Results 32 3.2.2.1 Task performance 32 3.2.2.2 Mental workload 34 3.2.2.3 Team SA 35 3.3 Discussion 35 3.3.1 The effects and advantages of the pre-alarm system 35 3.3.2 The interaction between the system state and operator role 37 3.3.3 Suggestions 38 Chapter4. Construction of a mental workload predictive model in NPP maintenance environment 39 4.1 Problem analysis 39 4.2 Method 40 4.2.1 Participants 40 4.2.2 Experimental task and variables 40 4.2.3 The network model and model predictors for mental workload 41 4.3 Results 42 4.3.1 Correlation analysis 42 4.3.2 Model construction 43 4.3.3 Model Testing 44 4.4 Discussion 44 Chapter5. Predicting visual fatigue in IC packaging plants 46 5.1 Background 46 5.2.1 Subjects and Apparatus 48 5.2.2 Procedures 48 5.2.2.1 Evaluation of the relationship between defect and visual fatigue 49 5.2.2.2 Model predictors 49 5.2.2.3 Model implementation 50 5.3 Results 51 5.3.1 The relationship between visual fatigue and defects 51 5.3.2 Model construction 51 5.3.3 Model implementation 54 5.4 Discussion 54 5.4.1 Visual fatigue and yield rate 54 5.4.2 Predictors 55 5.4.3 Neural Network (NN) 55 5.4.4 Model comparison 56 Chapter6. Conclusions 57 References 60

    Abdel-Aal, R. E. (2008). Univariate modeling and forecasting of monthly energy demand time series using abductive and neural networks. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 54(4), 903-917.
    Aft, L. S. (1998). Fundamentals of Industrial Quality Control. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
    Artman, H. (2000). Team situation assessment and information distribution. Ergonomics, 43(8), 1111-1128.
    Baron, M., Takken, A., Yashchin, E., & Lanzerotti, M. (2008). Modeling and Forecasting of Defect-Limited Yield in Semiconductor Manufacturing. Ieee Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 21(4), 614-624.
    Bergqvist, U., Knave, B., Voss, M., & Wibom, R. (1992). A longitudinal study of VDT work and health. International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction, 4, 197-219.
    Bergqvist, U. O., & Knave, B. G. (1994). Eye Discomfort and Work with Visual-Display Terminals. Scandinavian Journal of Work Environment & Health, 20(1), 27-33.
    Boucsein, W., & Thum, M. (1995). Recovery from strain under different work-rest schedules. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the human factors and ergonomics society 39th annual meeting, Santa Monica, CA.
    Cacciabue, P. C. (2000). Human factors impact on risk analysis of complex systems. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 71, 101-116.
    Carter, J. B., & Banister, E. W. (1994). Musculoskeletal Problems in Vdt Work - a Review. Ergonomics, 37(10), 1623-1648.
    Dillon, T. W., & Emurian, H. H. (1996). Some factors affecting reports of visual fatigue resulting from use of a VDU. Computers in Human Behavior, 12(1), 49-59.
    Dordevic, G. S., Rasic, M., Kostic, D., & Potkonjak, V. (2000). Representation of robot motion control skill. Ieee Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part C-Applications and Reviews, 30(2), 219-238.
    Duffy, V. G., & Chan, A. H. S. (2002). Effects of virtual lighting on visual performance and eye fatigue. Human Factors and Ergonomics in Manufacturing, 12(2), 193-209.
    Eberts, R. E., & Eberts, C. G. (Eds.). (1985). Trends in Ergonomics/Human Factors. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
    Endsley, M. R. (1995a). Measurement of Situation Awareness in Dynamic-Systems. Human Factors, 37(1), 65-84.
    Endsley, M. R. (1995b). Toward a Theory of Situation Awareness in Dynamic-Systems. Human Factors, 37(1), 32-64.
    Endsley, M. R. (Ed.). (1999). Situation Awareness in Aviation Systems. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Eribaum Associates.
    Endsley, M. R. (Ed.). (2000). Theoretical Underpinnings of situation awareness: A critical review. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
    Endsley, M. R., & Kaber, D. B. (1999). Level of automation effects on performance, situation awareness and workload in a dynamic control task. Ergonomics, 42(3), 462-492.
    Farlow, S. J. (1984a). Self-organizing methods in modeling : GMDH-type algorithms. In S. J. Farlow (Ed.), The GMDH Algorithm (pp. 1-24). New York: CRC Press.
    Farlow, S. J. (1984b). Self-organizing methods in modeling : GMDH-type algorithms. In A. R. Barron (Ed.), Predicted Squared Error: a criterion for automatic model selection (pp. 87-104). New York: CRC Press.
    Floru, R., Cail, F., & Elias, R. (1985). Psychophysical changes during a VDU repetitive task. Ergonomics, 28, 1455-1468.
    Furuta, K., Simada, T., & Kondo, S. (1999). Behavioral simulation of a nuclear power plant operator crew for human–machine system design. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 188, 97-109.
    Gao, C. S., Lu, D. M., She, Q. Y., Cai, R. T., Yang, L., & Zhang, G. G. (1990). The Effects of Vdt Data-Entry Work on Operators. Ergonomics, 33(7), 917-924.
    Georges, A. (2002). Probabilistic safety assessment and reliability based maintenance policies: application to emergency diesel generator of a nuclear power plant. Computer and Industrial Engineering, 42, 433-438.
    Guhe, M., Liao, W., Zhu, Z., Ji, Q., Gray, W. D., & Schoelles, M. J. (2005). Non-Intrusive Measurement of workload in Real-Time. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 49th Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.
    Gunnarsson, E., & Soderberg, I. (1983). Eye Strain Resulting from Vdt Work at the Swedish-Telecommunications-Administration. Applied Ergonomics, 14(1), 61-69.
    Gyunyoung, H. (2005). Advisory system for the diagnosis of lost electric output in nuclear power plants. Expert Systems with Applications, 29, 747-756.
    Han, J., & Kamber, M. (2001). Data Mining concepts and techniques (2nd ed.). San Francisco, CA, USA: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.
    Hauland, G. (2008). Measuring individual and team situation awareness during planning tasks in training of en route air traffic control. International Journal of Aviation Psychology, 18(3), 290-304.
    Henning, R. A., Jacques, P., Kissel, G. V., Sullivan, A. B., & AlterasWebb, S. M. (1997). Frequent short rest breaks from computer work: Effects on productivity and well-being at two field sites. Ergonomics, 40(1), 78-91.
    Hobbs, A., & Williamson, A. (2002). Skills, rules and knowledge in aircraft maintenance: errors in context. Ergonomics, 45(4), 290-308.
    Hollnagel, E. (1993). Human Reliability Analysis: Context and Control. In (pp. 1-50). London: Academic Press.
    Honjin, M. (2000). Overview of a draft of new maintenance standards. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 198(1-2), 49-59.
    Huang, F. H., Hwang, S. L., Yenn, T. C., Yu, Y. C., Hsu, C. C., & Huang, H. W. (2006). Evaluation and comparison of alarm reset modes in advanced control room of nuclear power plants. Safety Science, 44(10), 935-946.
    Hwang, H. S. (2006). Fuzzy GMDH-type neural network model and its application to forecasting of mobile communication. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 50(4), 450-457.
    Hwang, S. L., Lin, J. T., Liang, G. F., Yau, Y. J., Yenn, T. C., & Hsu, C. C. (2008). Application control chart concepts of designing a pre-alarm system in the nuclear power plant control room. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 238(12), 3522-3527.
    Hwang, S. L., Yau, Y. J., Lin, Y. T., Chen, J. H., Huang, T. H., Yenn, T. C., et al. (2008). Predicting work performance in nuclear power plants. Safety Science, 46(7), 1115-1124.
    Ivakhnenko, A. G. (1970). Heuristic Self-Organization in Problems of Engineering Cybernetics. Automatica, 6(2), 207-219.
    Ivakhnenko, A. G. (1971). Polynomial Theory of Complex Systems. Ieee Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics, SMC1(4), 364-378.
    Jaschinskikruza, W. (1984). Transient Myopia after Visual Work. Ergonomics, 27(11), 1181-1189.
    Jovanovic, A. (2003). Risk-based inspection and maintenance in power and process plants in Europe. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 226(2), 165-182.
    Kaber, D. B., & Endsley, M. R. (1998). Team situation awareness for process control safety and performance. Process Safety Progress, 17(1), 43-48.
    Kim, D. H., Lee, S. J., Oh, K. J., & Kim, T. Y. (2009). An early warning system for financial crisis using a stock market instability index. Expert Systems, 26(3), 260-273.
    Kim, I. S. (1994). Computerized Systems for Online Management of Failures - a State-of-the-Art Discussion of Alarm Systems and Diagnostic Systems Applied in the Nuclear Industry. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 44(3), 279-295.
    Kim, J. T., Kwon, K. C., Hwang, I. K., Lee, D. Y., Park, W. M., Kim, J. S., et al. (2001). Development of advanced I&C in nuclear power plants: ADIOS and ASICS. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 207, 105-119.
    Kim, T. Y., Oh, K. J., Sohn, I., & Hwang, C. H. (2004). Usefulness of artificial neural networks for early warning system of economic crisis. Expert Systems with Applications, 26(4), 583-590.
    Kirwan, B. (1998a). Human error identification techniques for risk assessment of high risk systems - Part 1: Review and evaluation of techniques. Applied Ergonomics, 29(3), 157-177.
    Kirwan, B. (1998b). Human error identification techniques for risk assessment of high risk systems - Part 2: Towards a framework approach. Applied Ergonomics, 29(5), 299-318.
    Kolich, M. (2004). Predicting automobile seat comfort using a neural network. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 33, 285-293.
    Kopardekar, P., & Mital, A. (1994). The Effect of Different Work Rest Schedules on Fatigue and Performance of a Simulated Directory Assistance Operators Task. Ergonomics, 37(10), 1697-1707.
    Ledolter, J., & Burrill, C. W. (1999). Statistical Quality Control: strategies and tools for continual improvement. In (pp. 304-366). New York: John Wiley & Sons, INC.
    Lin, C. J., Feng, W. Y., Chao, C. J., & Tseng, F. Y. (2008). Effects of VDT workstation lighting conditions on operator visual workload. Industrial Health, 46(2), 105-111.
    Ma, R., Kaber, D. B., Jones, J. M., & Starkey, R. L. (2006). Team situation awareness in nuclear power plant process control: a literature review, task analysis and future research. Paper presented at the ANS Fifth International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Plant Instrumentation, Controls, and Human Machine Interface Technology.
    Matthews, M. L., Lovasik, J. V., & Mertins, K. (1989). Visual Performance and Subjective Discomfort in Prolonged Viewing of Chromatic Displays. Human Factors, 31(3), 259-271.
    Maurino, D. E., Reason, J., Johnston, N., & Lee, R. B. (1995). In Beyond Aviation Human Factors. Brookfield, Vermont: Ashgate Publishing Company.
    Mital, A., & Karwowski, W. (1989). Prediction of Isometric and Isokinetic Strengths of Males in Teamwork - Further Applications of Gmdh. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 16(1), 145-159.
    Miyake, S. (2001). Multivariate workload evaluation combining physiological and subjective measures. International Journal of Psychophysiology, 40, 233-238.
    Moray, N. (1988). Mental workload since 1979. International Review of Ergonomics, 2, 123-150.
    Mourant, R. R., Lakshmanan, R., & Chantadisai, R. (1981). Visual Fatigue and Cathode-Ray Tube Display Terminals. Human Factors, 23(5), 529-540.
    Murata, K., Araki, S., Yokoyama, K., Yamashita, K., Okumatsu, T., & Sakou, S. (1996). Accumulation of VDT work-related visual fatigue assessed by visual evoked potential, near point distance and critical flicker fusion. Industrial Health, 34(2), 61-69.
    Oh, K. J., Kim, T. Y., & Kim, C. (2006). An early warning system for detection of financial crisis using financial market volatility. Expert Systems, 23(2), 83-98.
    Papin, B., & Quellien, P. (2006). The operational complexity index: a new method for the global assessment of the human factor impact on the safety of advanced reactors concepts. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 236, 1113-1121.
    Parasuraman, R., & Mouloua, M. (1996). Automation and human performance: theory and applications (Vol. 183-197). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
    Patten, C. J. D., Kircher, A., Ostlund, J., & Nilsson, L. (2004). Using mobile telephones: cognitive workload and attention resource allocation. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 36(3), 341-350.
    Pavel, N., & Miroslav, S. (2003). Modeling of student's quality by means of GMDH algorithms. Systems Analysis Modeling Simulation, 43(10), 1415-1426.
    Prince, C. (1998). Situation assessment for routine flight and decision making. International Journal of Cognitive Ergonomics, 1, 315-324.
    Prince, C., Ellis, E., Brannick, M. T., & Salas, E. (2007). Measurement of team situation awareness in lowexperience level aviators. The International Journal of Aviation Psychology, 17(1), 41-57.
    Pyy, P. (2001). An analysis of maintenance failures at a nuclear power plant. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 72(3), 293-302.
    Reason, J. (1990). Human Error. In (pp. 36-48). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    Saito, M., Tanaka, T., & Oshima, M. (1981). Eyestrain in Inspection and Clerical Workers. Ergonomics, 24(3), 161-173.
    Saito, S., Sotoyama, M., Saito, S., & Taptagaporn, S. (1994). Physiological Indexes of Visual Fatigue Due to Vdt Operation - Pupillary Reflexes and Accommodative Responses. Industrial Health, 32(2), 57-66.
    Salas, E., Prince, C., Baker, D. P., & Shrestha, L. (1995). Situation Awareness in Team Performance - Implications for Measurement and Training. Human Factors, 37(1), 123-136.
    Salminen, S., & Tallberg, T. (1996). Human errors in fatal and serious occupational accidents in Finland. 39, 980-988.
    Silva, A. P. A. d., Ferreira, C., & Torres, G. L. (1996, 28 Jan-2 Feb 1996). Dynamic load modeling based on a nonparametric ANN. Paper presented at the International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems.
    Smith, A. E. (1994). X-bar and R control chart interpretation using neural computing. International Journal of production research, 32(2), 309-320.
    Sohn, Y. W., & Doane, S. M. (2004). Memory processes of flight situation awareness: Interactive roles of working memory capacity, long-term working memory, and expertise. Human Factors, 46(3), 461-475.
    Son, I. S., Oh, K. J., Kim, T. Y., & Kim, D. H. (2009). An early warning system for global institutional investors at emerging stock markets based on machine learning forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(3), 4951-4957.
    Spitzer, C. (1996). Review of probabilistic safety assessments:insights and recommendations regarding further developments. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 52, 153-163.
    Stern, H. S. (1996). Neural Networks in Applied Statistics (with discussion). Technometrics, 38, 205-220.
    Stubler, W. F., Higgins, J. C., & Kramer, J. (2000). Maintainability of Digital Systems: Technical Basis and Human Factors Review Guidance. Washington, DC: Division of Systems Analysis and Regulatory Effectiveness (NUREG/CR-6636). Washington, DC: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
    Sun, J., & Zhang, G. X. (2002). Common Using Criterion and Theorem of Quality Control Chart. Taipei: Chinese Society for Quality.
    Taptagaporn, S., & Saito, S. (1993). Visual Comfort in Vdt Operation - Physiological Resting States of the Eye. Industrial Health, 31(1), 13-28.
    Tomonori, N., & S., S. (1982). Identification and forecasting in management systems using the GMDH method. Appl. Math. Modeling, 6, 7-15.
    Trager, J. R. (1985). Case study report on loss of safety system function events, AEOD/C504. Washington DC, USA: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
    Tung, W. L., Quek, C., & Cheng, P. (2004). GenSo-EWS: a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failures. Neural Networks, 17(4), 567-587.
    Ujita, H. (1985). Human classification and analysis in Nuclear Power Plants. Journal of Nuclar Science and Technology, 22, 496-498.
    Wang, M. J. J., & Huang, C. L. (2004). Evaluating the eye fatigue problem in wafer inspection. Ieee Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 17(3), 444-447.
    Wickens, C. D., & Hollands, J. G. (2000a). Engineering Psychology and Human Performance. In (pp. 119-157). New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
    Wickens, C. D., & Hollands, J. G. (2000b). Engineering Psychology and Human Performance. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
    Wilson, G. F., & Russel, C. A. (2003). Real-time assessment of mental workload using psychophysiological measures and artificial Neural Networks. Human Factors, 45(4), 635-643.
    Xie, B., & Salvendy, G. (2000). Review and reappraisal of modelling and predicting mental workload in single and multi-task environments. Work & Stress, 14(1), 74-99.
    Yam, R. C. M., Tse, P. W., Li, L., & Tu, P. (2001). Intelligent predictive decision support system for condition-based maintenance. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 17(5), 383-391.
    Yang, B. A., Li, L. X., & Xu, J. (2001). An early warning system for loan risk assessment using artificial neural networks. Knowledge-Based Systems, 14(5-6), 303-306.
    Yang, T. H., Yan, S., & Chen, H. H. (2003). An airline maintenance manpower planning model with flexible strategies. Journal of Air Transport Management, 9, 233-239.

    無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校內網路)
    全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校外網路)

    QR CODE