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| 研究生： |
鄭世偉 Cheng, Shih-Wei |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
探討於非常態時間舉辦國際足總世界盃足球賽球員表現評價之實證研究分析-2022年卡達 An empirical research on evaluating the players performance in the FIFA World Cup hosted in abnormal month-Qatar 2022 |
| 指導教授： |
余朝恩
Yu, Chao-En |
| 口試委員: |
林世昌
Lin, Shih-Chang 邱詩詠 Chiu, Shih-Yung |
| 學位類別： |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱： |
科技管理學院 - 公共政策與管理 Master Program of Public Policy and Management |
| 論文出版年： | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度： | 111 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 45 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 世界盃足球賽 、賽事時間變更 、球員表現評價 、公共政策 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | FIFA World Cup, scheduling change, players performance evaluation, public policy |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：51 下載：0 |
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第22屆國際足總世界盃足球賽(FIFA World Cup)於2022年11月20日至12月18日在中東卡達舉辦，是首次在11月至12月間舉辦(非常態)，有別於以往固定在6月至7月間舉辦。若此次舉辦時間變更對於球員表現有正面或沒有影響的話，則未來11月至12月也是可行的方案，若有負面影響的話也許11月至12月將不在未來舉辦的選項。此次於非常態時間舉辦賽事所產生的各層面影響仍有待各方驗證，尚不論結果如何都將會深深牽引著未來賽事舉辦時間決定的重要公共政策依據。
本次研究嘗試以敘述統計、相關係數和多元迴歸分析等方法，採用WhoScored.com的選手表現評價分數作為重要研究數據，對於出賽2022年卡達世界盃球員之臨場數據表現和球員屬性，相較於2018年俄羅斯和2014年巴西等二屆世界盃賽事是否會有顯著改變或影響。研究結果顯示全體出賽球員每場次賽後評價分數之平均數和中位數自2014年起至2022年逐漸下降且有形成趨勢的情況，以不同球員群組分類來看仍有同樣情形。以多元迴歸式驗證分析，在控制其他條件不變情況下，2022年世界盃於非常態時間舉辦對於全體出賽球員以及大多數群組球員每場次賽後評價分數皆呈現顯著負向影響，因此建議主辦單位務必參考2022年世界盃的經驗加以評估後續賽事的舉辦時間，並且健全賽事安排與球員福利保障制度。
The 22nd FIFA World Cup was held in Qatar from November 20th to December 18th, 2022, which was an unusual scheduling as it was not held in the usual June to July period. This has a profound impact on future public decision-making for the timing of the World Cup.
This study attempts to investigate whether there are significant changes or impacts on the in-game data performance and player attributes of the players participating in the 2022 Qatar World Cup compared to the 2018 Russia and 2014 Brazil World Cup games. The results show that the average and median of the post-match performance ratings of all players have gradually decreased since 2014, forming a trend. The same situation still exists when different groups of players are classified. Multiple regression analysis confirms that holding the 2022 World Cup at an unusual time has a significant negative impact when controlling for other conditions. Therefore, it is recommended that the organizers must take this experience into account and evaluate the timing of future World Cup events while also establishing a sound match arrangement and player welfare protection system.
一、中文文獻
1. 張鎮宏 (2022年11月14日)。卡達世足FIFA現形記─瘋狂、黑金、死傷不斷的血色世界盃。取自https://www.twreporter.org/a/2022-fifa-world-cup-controversial-qatar
2. 石明謹 (2022)。Road to World Cup足球應許之地(15-16頁)。新北市：堡壘文化
3. 鄭先萌 (2022年11月22日)。各國傷兵湧現戰力打折扣國際足總難辭其咎。取自https://news.pts.org.tw/article/610480
二、英文文獻
1. Sam Borden (2015, March 19). FIFA Confirms Winter World Cup for 2022. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/sports/soccer/fifa-confirms-winter-world-cup-for-2022.html
2. Sam Tighe (2014, January 8). World Cup 2022 Winter Switch Compounds FIFA's Failures, Sets Dangerous Precedent. Bleacher Report. Retrieved from https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1915276-world-cup-2022-winter-switch-compounds-fifas-failures-sets-dangerous-precedent
3. The Economist (2022, November 17). The Qatar World Cup shows how football is changing. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/international/2022/11/17/the-qatar-world-cup-shows-how-football-is-changing
4. FIFPRO (2023). FIFA World Cup 2022 Post Tournament Review & Player Survey.
5. Dambroz, F., Clemente, F. M., & Teoldo, I. (2022). The effect of physical fatigue on the performance of soccer players: A systematic review. Plos One, 17(7), e0270099.
6. Pageaux, B., & Lepers, R. (2018). The effects of mental fatigue on sport-related performance. Progress in Brain Research, 240, 291-315.
7. Oblinger-Peters, V., & Krenn, B. (2020). “Time for recovery” or “utter uncertainty”? The postponement of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games through the eyes of Olympic athletes and coaches. A qualitative study. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 610856.
8. Taku, K., & Arai, H. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on athletes and coaches, and their values in Japan: repercussions of postponing the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic games. Journal of Loss and Trauma, 25(8), 623-630.
9. Julian, R., Page, R. M., & Harper, L. D. (2021). The effect of fixture congestion on performance during professional male soccer match-play: a systematic critical review with meta-analysis. Sports Medicine, 51, 255-273.
10. Allahabadi, S., Gatto, A. P., & Pandya, N. K. (2022). ACL tears in the National Football League from 2013 to 2020: analysis of the 2020 season after delays and schedule changes from the early CoViD-19 pandemic relative to prior seasons. Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, 10(2), 23259671221076045.
11. Lee, H., Tama, B. A., & Cha, M. (2022). Prediction of Football Player Value using Bayesian Ensemble Approach. ArXiv preprint arXiv:2206.13246.
三、參考網站
1. 世界氣象組織, https://worldweather.wmo.int/tc/home.html
2. WhoScored Ratings Explained, https://www.whoscored.com/Explanations
3. FIFA 23 COVER STARS, https://www.ea.com/games/fifa/fifa-23/cover-athletes-and-ambassadors?isLocalized=true
4. SOFIFA, https://sofifa.com/
5. The FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ by the numbers, fifa.com